It's a simple question really. It's just that the answer is much more complicated.Last week's "great migration," as I've called it, left Iowa's roster a bit lacking, to put it nicely. Jake Kelly's transfer leaves Iowa devoid of any super offensive talent.
Yeah, Matt Gatens is a pretty good player. But is he the type of player that a program can build around? Is he the type of player that can rescue a coaching staff that finds itself in a world of trouble?
I don't think so. He's a nice piece to have, but he's not a player that takes over games. He needs more help than what he'll get from guys like Anthony Tucker, Jarryd Cole and Aaron Fuller.
Let's face it. Every team in the Big Ten has a more talented roster in place for the 2009-10 season, even Northwestern. And it's too late for Todd Lickliter to grab some blue-chipper who can come in and make an immediate impact--not that he would've done so even if there was still time.
Which brings us to another significant issue. The current coaching staff has not been able to bring in great talent. That's what makes the departure of Kelly and Jeff Peterson so destructive. Year three in Lickliter's rebuilding efforts will likely feel like year one all over again.
And if this is the case, how soon can you reasonably expect Lickliter to get Iowa to the NCAA Tournament, assuming he doesn't get fired. Year five? Year six? seven? It's certainly difficult to imagine Iowa will get there in the next two seasons.
Heck, an NIT appearance in 2011 sounds pretty good considering the current state of the program.
In the big picture, this means Lickliter and his staff may be looking for jobs this time, two years from now. I hate to say it. I want Lickliter to succeed. But right now it just doesn't look good.
You can throw away next season. Iowa won't be very good. Thus, the 2010-11 season becomes the key. With Gatens, Tucker, Cole, Fuller, Brennan Cougill, Eric May and Cody Larson leading the way, does Iowa take that next step and become a competitive team?
If the answer is no, and there's a good chance it will be, then Lickliter may be looking for his next coaching gig. All I can say is, he better hope that Gary Barta is a patient man.
(Image of Todd Lickliter with Jeff Peterson courtesy of the Quad-City Times)
7-year contract, $1.2 million a year..I just don't see Barta canning Lick within the next two years.
ReplyDeleteI was front row at the press conference the other day, and for whatever reason, Lick was more nervous than I have ever seen him. We're talking beads of sweat, shaking hands, a lot of stammering before answering questions; it was bad. My dad goes to a lot of the press conferences, and said he hadn't seen him that jittery since during his introduction press conference.
ReplyDeleteAnd over in the corner, the look on Barta's face was scary to say the least. All bunched up with a stern brow.
Barta was asked what "reasonable progress" means for next year, and if player retention will be taken into account, and he gave the worst non-answer I've heard in a looooong time.
bad times for hawkeye b-ball.
Peter, that's a good point. Remaining salary is something I should have mentioned in the post. Certainly Barta has to weigh that as well. But if Iowa is under .500 the next two seasons there will be serious pressure to replace Lickliter.
ReplyDeleteWho do we get that would be able to bring in talent for around $1M a year? You know Barta isn't going to pay much more than that. Great article Jacob, good stuff!
ReplyDelete