With the Big Ten season winding down, the player of the year race is likely to be a prominent topic of discussion. Guys like Talor Battle, Kalin Lucas, Evan Turner and Manny Harris figure to be in the running. But not every team has a candidate. However, every team has at least one standout performer. This week’s power rankings focus on each team’s most valuable player.
1. Michigan State (22-5, 12-3):
Team MVP: Kalin Lucas (14.4 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 4.6 APG, 37.0 3PT%)
Chances of being Big Ten POY: Very good.
--Lucas quarterbacks the best team in the conference, and he’s not too shabby either. His lightning quickness and defense are keys to the Spartan attack. When he plays well Michigan State is awfully tough for anyone in the nation to beat.
2. Illinois (23-6, 11-5):
Team MVP: Chester Frazier (5.4 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 5.4 APG, 36.7 3PT%)
Chances of being Big Ten POY: Might as well be a million to one.
--While Frazier has virtually no chance of being the Big Ten POY, he makes the ‘Illini go. He doesn’t score a ton of points but plays smart efficient basketball, and he contributes in many areas. It doesn’t matter that he’s sixth on his own team in scoring.
3. Purdue (21-7, 10-5):
Team MVP: JaJuan Johnson (13.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 2.3 BPG, 56.5 FG%)
Chances of being Big Ten POY: Slim.
--Johnson has made striking improvements from his freshman season. He’s playing a lot more minutes and producing at a high level. He is one of the main reasons Purdue has won consistently despite Robbie Hummel’s back issues.
4. Wisconsin (17-10, 8-7):
Team MVP: Marcus Landry (12.7 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 1.4 APG, 49.6 FG%)
Chances of being Big Ten POY: Improving, but still very low.
--Landry provides leadership and steady, productive play. He doesn’t do anything spectacular, and he’s by no means a superstar, but he always plays hard and does exactly what Bo Ryan wants. His senior presence helped the Badgers break out of their six-game funk.
5. Ohio State (18-8, 8-7):
Team MVP: Evan Turner (16.7 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 3.7 APG, 1.8 SPG, 50.9 FG%)
Chances of being Big Ten POY: Very good.
--Turner probably rivals Lucas as one of the top two candidates for Big Ten POY. He does it all--what else can you say? He’s have a very special season and is definitely deserving of winning some individual hardware.
6. Michigan (18-11, 8-8):
Team MVP: Manny Harris (17.2 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 4.3 APG, 41.4 FG%)
Chances of being Big Ten POY: Decent, but unlikely.
--Harris possesses as much talent as anyone in the conference. He can fly up and down the court. He’s lengthy. He’s quick. And he puts up big numbers in a lot of categories. It’s inexplicable as to why John Beilein benched him in the overtime against Iowa.
7. Minnesota (20-8, 8-8):
Team MVP: Al Nolen (7.2 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 4.6 APG, 2.0 APG, 34.5 FG%)
Chances of being Big Ten POY: Zero.
--Perhaps I’m biased in favor of point guards. Nolen ranks third on the team in scoring, but is crucial to the team’s success. He can really fill up a stat sheet, contributing on the glass, poking away passes and dishing out assists.
8. Penn State (19-9, 8-7):
Team MVP: Talor Battle (17.1 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 5.1 APG, 40.7 FG%)
Chances of being Big Ten POY: Better than average.
--More people should be aware of this guy nationally. He should be considered in the top five in the race for Big Ten POY. He means more to his team than just about anybody in the conference. The ball is always in his hands with the game on the line.
9. Northwestern (15-11, 6-9):
Team MVP: Kevin Coble (15.3 PPG, 4.5. RPG, 2.5 APG, 38.1 3PT%)
Chances of being Big Ten POY: Very slim.
--This was a tough one. Craig Moore means a lot to the ‘Cats as well, but Coble is the most athletic and talented player on the roster. It takes an incredible season for anyone to win the Big Ten POY award on a 6-9 team. That doesn’t diminish the fact that Coble has shined this season though.
10. Iowa (14-14, 4-11):
Team MVP: Matt Gatens (11.0 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.1 APG, 43.1 3PT%)
Chances of being Big Ten POY: See Al Nolen.
--Jake Kelly has made a recent push for the honor of team MVP, but Gatens has played with more consistency throughout the balance of the season. This consistency has been a saving grace for a team ravaged by injuries. Gatens represents the face of the Iowa program.
11. Indiana (6-21, 1-14):
Team MVP: Tom Pritchard (10.2 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 50.0 FG%)
Chances of being Big Ten POY: About as good as mine.
--Pritchard’s play is a bright spot for a team enduring a nightmare of a season. Like Gatens, Pritchard is only a freshman and could be a key player in Tom Crean’s rebuilding efforts. He’ll have to stave off a slew of big-time recruits in the coming years though.
Friday, February 27, 2009
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Alford vs. Lickliter
Just two years ago Steve Alford fled to New Mexico with his tail between his legs. Many Hawkeye fans rejoiced. They had soured on him after his handling of the Pierre Pierce situation and his poor record within the Big Ten Conference. It was time for change, they said. But is Todd Lickliter actually an upgrade? Let’s compare. Who’s a better in-game tactician? The better recruiter? Let the debate begin.(Images courtesy of hawkeyesports.com and golobos.com).
The Steve Alford File:
Career D-1 W-L: 272-173
Conf. W-L: 126-103
W-L at Iowa: 152-106
NCAA Tourney Appearances: 4
NIT Appearances: 5
Career D-1 W-L: 272-173
Conf. W-L: 126-103
W-L at Iowa: 152-106
NCAA Tourney Appearances: 4
NIT Appearances: 5
The Todd Lickliter File:
Career D-1 W-L: 158-94
Conf. W-L: 75-54
W-L at Iowa: 27-33
NCAA Tourney Appearances: 2
NIT Appearances: 2
In-Game Coaching:
Alford’s in-game coaching tactics were questioned frequently. How else do you explain how he lost so many games with superior talent than the opposition? In fairness to Alford, his Iowa teams seemed to score routinely on out-of-bounds plays. On the other hand, Lickliter makes many sound adjustments during the course of a game. Iowa seems to play better in the second half of games. Edge: Lickliter.
Recruiting:
Alford’s early years at Iowa saw some great talent come in. His 2000 class was ranked No. 5 in the nation. He got Luke Recker and Reggie Evans to transfer to Iowa and signed top 50 freshmen Glen Worley and Jared Reiner. His recruiting then tapered off in his later years at Iowa though he has recruited at a pretty high level at New Mexico. Meanwhile, recruiting represents Lickliter’s biggest question mark. He probably won’t get as many highly-ranked players as Alford, but he looks for a specific type that fits his system. Edge: Alford.
Player Development:
It says a lot when some players improve more in one season with a new head coach than they had in several seasons with the former coach. This appeared to be the case for guys like Seth Gorney and Cyrus Tate. Both seemed to be treading water under the tutelage of Alford and his staff, but when Lickliter came on board, things changed. Gorney got markedly better, and Tate showed he could be a force inside. Similarly, players like Jake Kelly and Jeff Peterson have made significant strides since last season. This could be an area where Lickliter makes up for possible shortcomings in recruiting. Edge: Lickliter.
Media Relations:
OK, this one doesn’t really matter that much. But Lickliter seems to better connect with the media and not come off as arrogant. Alford often blamed his players after games, whereas Lickliter often takes full responsibility after losses. Edge: Lickliter.
Hair:
It’s tough to top Alford’s perfectly gelled dew. He never has a hair out of place. Lickliter keeps his hair short and well-groomed, but it doesn’t have the same flair. Edge: Alford.
Overall:
Lickliter did more at Butler than Alford could at Iowa. However, Alford’s had a degree of success in his new gig at New Mexico and Lickliter continues to rebuild Iowa. Lickliter’s superior coaching ability gives him the advantage. Edge: Lickliter.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
All-Iowa Honor Roll
This blog has virtually ignored the three other Division I basketball teams in the state of Iowa so far this season, but with the conclusion of in-state play (Drake won at Northern Iowa Feb. 18), it’s time to take a look at how the teams compare.
Ranking the Hawkeye State:
1. Northern Iowa (18-10, 12-4): The surprising Panthers are tied for first in the MVC with Creighton after being picked in the middle of the pack in pre-season polls. They lost to both Iowa and Iowa State, but rebounded to win 11 games in a row. They’ve now lost three in a row, but Ben Jacobsen deserves a lot of credit. He’ll easily be the MVC coach of the year. In-State Record: 1-3.
2. Iowa (14-13, 4-10): Yes, Drake beat Iowa, but the Bulldogs underachieved this season and are 7-9 in a weak MVC. The Hawkeyes would likely match that record with the same schedule. However, the Big Ten is probably the third best conference in college basketball. Injuries have robbed Iowa of perhaps a couple more victories. In-State Record: 2-1.
3. Drake (17-12, 7-9): Drake probably has the most talent of any team in Iowa. Josh Young is one of the finest players in the country that nobody talks about, although he’s had a bit of a down year, shooting just 33.3 percent from beyond the arc. This team should be much better than 7-9 in their league. Keno Davis handed Mark Phelps a MVC title contender, but Phelps will get a pass because it’s his first year. In-State Record: 3-1.
4. Iowa State (13-14, 2-10): If only the Cyclones could clone a couple more Craig Brackins. Really, what else is there to be excited about? Diante Garrett’s a pretty good player but he has little help in the backcourt. The clock is beginning to tick for Greg McDermott, who’s achieved very little in three years at Iowa State. Thankfully for the ‘Clones, a decent recruiting class with backcourt help arrives next season. In-State Record: 1-2.
All-Iowa 1st Team:
F- Craig Brackins, Iowa State: 19.9 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 47.4 FG%
F- Matt Gatens, Iowa: 11.1 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 43.9 3PT%
G- Jake Kelly, Iowa: 10.3 PPG, 2.8 APG, 44.6 FG%
G- Josh Young, Drake: 15.7 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 33.3 3PT%
G- Diante Garrett, Iowa State: 9.7 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 5.3 APG
2nd Team:
C- Jordan Eglseder, UNI: 10.0 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 58.3 FG%
F- Jonathan Cox, Drake: 11.9 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 39.1 3PT%
F- Adam Koch, UNI: 11.6 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 49.2 FG%
G- Josh Parker, Drake: 11.0 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 43.9 3PT%
G- Jeff Peterson, Iowa: 10.6 PPG, 4.2 APG, 39.7 3PT%
Ranking the Coaches:
1. Todd Lickliter, Iowa
2. Greg McDermott, Iowa State
3. Ben Jacobsen, Northern Iowa
4. Mark Phelps, Drake
None of these coaches have accomplished anything at their current schools, but Lickliter and McDermott get the top spots for their success at Butler and UNI, respectively.
Quick Hitters:
Best NBA Prospect: Craig Brackins, Iowa State
Top Freshman: Matt Gatens, Iowa
Best Shooter: Gatens
Best Rebounder: Jordan Eglseder, UNI
Best Athlete: Josh Young, Drake
Best Scorer: Brackins
Best Passer: Diante Garrett, Iowa State
Best Team Next Season: Iowa
Best Home court: Iowa
Ranking the Hawkeye State:
1. Northern Iowa (18-10, 12-4): The surprising Panthers are tied for first in the MVC with Creighton after being picked in the middle of the pack in pre-season polls. They lost to both Iowa and Iowa State, but rebounded to win 11 games in a row. They’ve now lost three in a row, but Ben Jacobsen deserves a lot of credit. He’ll easily be the MVC coach of the year. In-State Record: 1-3.
2. Iowa (14-13, 4-10): Yes, Drake beat Iowa, but the Bulldogs underachieved this season and are 7-9 in a weak MVC. The Hawkeyes would likely match that record with the same schedule. However, the Big Ten is probably the third best conference in college basketball. Injuries have robbed Iowa of perhaps a couple more victories. In-State Record: 2-1.
3. Drake (17-12, 7-9): Drake probably has the most talent of any team in Iowa. Josh Young is one of the finest players in the country that nobody talks about, although he’s had a bit of a down year, shooting just 33.3 percent from beyond the arc. This team should be much better than 7-9 in their league. Keno Davis handed Mark Phelps a MVC title contender, but Phelps will get a pass because it’s his first year. In-State Record: 3-1.
4. Iowa State (13-14, 2-10): If only the Cyclones could clone a couple more Craig Brackins. Really, what else is there to be excited about? Diante Garrett’s a pretty good player but he has little help in the backcourt. The clock is beginning to tick for Greg McDermott, who’s achieved very little in three years at Iowa State. Thankfully for the ‘Clones, a decent recruiting class with backcourt help arrives next season. In-State Record: 1-2.
All-Iowa 1st Team:
F- Craig Brackins, Iowa State: 19.9 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 47.4 FG%
F- Matt Gatens, Iowa: 11.1 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 43.9 3PT%
G- Jake Kelly, Iowa: 10.3 PPG, 2.8 APG, 44.6 FG%
G- Josh Young, Drake: 15.7 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 33.3 3PT%
G- Diante Garrett, Iowa State: 9.7 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 5.3 APG
2nd Team:
C- Jordan Eglseder, UNI: 10.0 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 58.3 FG%
F- Jonathan Cox, Drake: 11.9 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 39.1 3PT%
F- Adam Koch, UNI: 11.6 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 49.2 FG%
G- Josh Parker, Drake: 11.0 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 43.9 3PT%
G- Jeff Peterson, Iowa: 10.6 PPG, 4.2 APG, 39.7 3PT%
Ranking the Coaches:
1. Todd Lickliter, Iowa
2. Greg McDermott, Iowa State
3. Ben Jacobsen, Northern Iowa
4. Mark Phelps, Drake
None of these coaches have accomplished anything at their current schools, but Lickliter and McDermott get the top spots for their success at Butler and UNI, respectively.
Quick Hitters:
Best NBA Prospect: Craig Brackins, Iowa State
Top Freshman: Matt Gatens, Iowa
Best Shooter: Gatens
Best Rebounder: Jordan Eglseder, UNI
Best Athlete: Josh Young, Drake
Best Scorer: Brackins
Best Passer: Diante Garrett, Iowa State
Best Team Next Season: Iowa
Best Home court: Iowa
Monday, February 23, 2009
Week in Review: Hawks' Triumph Shows Progress
Four Hawkeyes played 45 minutes. Another played 38. But somehow, someway, Iowa beat Michigan 70-60 Sunday in overtime.
The win moved Iowa to a lowly 4-10 in conference play, but it means a lot to a team that had come in losers of six of seven. It’s even more admirable when you consider that Iowa took the floor minus four key players. Although Cyrus Tate logged four minutes, it was hardly enough for him to make a significant impact.
Iowa got it done on guts, hustle, hard work and tenacious defense. The Hawks held Michigan standouts Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims to 22 combined points, while coaxing the duo to shoot a paltry 8-for-27 from the field. As a team, the Wolverines shot 32.3 percent (20-for-62).
Todd Lickliter’s young Hawks grew up a bit, finding a way to put a dent in Michigan’s tournament profile. Down four with under a minute to go, Matt Gatens made two crucial plays in the last minute to send it to overtime. Then Jake Kelly absolutely stole the show in the deciding five-minute period. The two gave Iowa visions of the future.
Mark it down: Gatens and Kelly will be the leaders of Lickliter’s first NCAA Tournament team at Iowa.
Game Ball Goes To:
Actually, I’m going to need two game balls. Jake Kelly and Devan Bawinkel both more than earned it. Kelly posted career-highs in points (23), rebounds (8) and assists (9), while playing the point for the entire 45 minutes. He scored in about every way possible and defended Manny Harris about as well as possible. Kelly’s now played very well in three consecutive games. He’s on his way to being a star.
Then there’s Bawinkel. I’ve knocked him a lot. I’ve questioned whether he can provide anything other than a 3-point shot. But on Sunday he played his best game in an Iowa uniform. Like Kelly, Gatens and Aaron Fuller, Bawinkel went the distance, giving Iowa something it didn’t expect from him--rebounding. The junior plucked nine boards and poured in four 3’s.
New Uniforms--Finally
Rumors suggested Iowa would unveil new uni’s Feb. 14 against Purdue. Oh well, Iowa broke out the gold on Sunday. They look better than I expected, but I still like white home uniforms that say “Iowa.” I guess you shouldn’t mess with success, though. Iowa’s 1-0 clad in gold.
Crowded Carver
Those are two words you don’t hear in conjunction anymore. But if you haven’t noticed, more than 14,500 fans have found their way to Carver in each of the last two home games. The cheap tickets have worked. Now to bring the students back. Gestures like the Hawkeye players high-fiving the students after victories, as they did Sunday, can only help.
Up Next: Feb. 25 @ Michigan State; Feb. 28 @ Northwestern
A difficult week awaits the Hawkeyes. Going to East Lansing and Evanston probably will prevent any kind of winning streak. Iowa never seems to play well at the Breslin Center. The Spartans have shown some vulnerability at home, but these Hawks aren’t ready to beat a team like them on the road. It could get ugly if Iowa gets flustered and becomes turnover prone.
Gatens and company should be able to compete at Northwestern though. The ‘Cats rarely blow anyone away and are hardly invincible at home. Still, Iowa will need to play well to come away with a win. Having more than eight available scholarship players wouldn’t hurt either.
Predictions:
Michigan State 71, Iowa 50
Northwestern 59, Iowa 56
The win moved Iowa to a lowly 4-10 in conference play, but it means a lot to a team that had come in losers of six of seven. It’s even more admirable when you consider that Iowa took the floor minus four key players. Although Cyrus Tate logged four minutes, it was hardly enough for him to make a significant impact.
Iowa got it done on guts, hustle, hard work and tenacious defense. The Hawks held Michigan standouts Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims to 22 combined points, while coaxing the duo to shoot a paltry 8-for-27 from the field. As a team, the Wolverines shot 32.3 percent (20-for-62).
Todd Lickliter’s young Hawks grew up a bit, finding a way to put a dent in Michigan’s tournament profile. Down four with under a minute to go, Matt Gatens made two crucial plays in the last minute to send it to overtime. Then Jake Kelly absolutely stole the show in the deciding five-minute period. The two gave Iowa visions of the future.
Mark it down: Gatens and Kelly will be the leaders of Lickliter’s first NCAA Tournament team at Iowa.
Game Ball Goes To:
Actually, I’m going to need two game balls. Jake Kelly and Devan Bawinkel both more than earned it. Kelly posted career-highs in points (23), rebounds (8) and assists (9), while playing the point for the entire 45 minutes. He scored in about every way possible and defended Manny Harris about as well as possible. Kelly’s now played very well in three consecutive games. He’s on his way to being a star.
Then there’s Bawinkel. I’ve knocked him a lot. I’ve questioned whether he can provide anything other than a 3-point shot. But on Sunday he played his best game in an Iowa uniform. Like Kelly, Gatens and Aaron Fuller, Bawinkel went the distance, giving Iowa something it didn’t expect from him--rebounding. The junior plucked nine boards and poured in four 3’s.
New Uniforms--Finally
Rumors suggested Iowa would unveil new uni’s Feb. 14 against Purdue. Oh well, Iowa broke out the gold on Sunday. They look better than I expected, but I still like white home uniforms that say “Iowa.” I guess you shouldn’t mess with success, though. Iowa’s 1-0 clad in gold.
Crowded Carver
Those are two words you don’t hear in conjunction anymore. But if you haven’t noticed, more than 14,500 fans have found their way to Carver in each of the last two home games. The cheap tickets have worked. Now to bring the students back. Gestures like the Hawkeye players high-fiving the students after victories, as they did Sunday, can only help.
Up Next: Feb. 25 @ Michigan State; Feb. 28 @ Northwestern
A difficult week awaits the Hawkeyes. Going to East Lansing and Evanston probably will prevent any kind of winning streak. Iowa never seems to play well at the Breslin Center. The Spartans have shown some vulnerability at home, but these Hawks aren’t ready to beat a team like them on the road. It could get ugly if Iowa gets flustered and becomes turnover prone.
Gatens and company should be able to compete at Northwestern though. The ‘Cats rarely blow anyone away and are hardly invincible at home. Still, Iowa will need to play well to come away with a win. Having more than eight available scholarship players wouldn’t hurt either.
Predictions:
Michigan State 71, Iowa 50
Northwestern 59, Iowa 56
Friday, February 20, 2009
Big Ten Power Rankings
This week I’ve included projections for each team’s remaining games and their projected seed for the Big Ten Tournament. I’ve got the Hawks winning two more to conclude Big Ten play at 5-13.
1. Michigan State (20-5, 10-3):
Feb. 22 vs. Wisconsin -- W
Feb. 25 vs. Iowa -- W
Mar. 3 @ Illinois -- L
Mar. 3 @ Indiana -- W
Mar. 8 vs. Purdue -- W
Projected Record: 24-6, 14-4; BTT Seed: 1
2. Purdue (20-6, 9-4):
Feb. 21 vs. Indiana -- W
Feb. 26 @ Michigan -- L
Feb. 28 vs. Ohio State -- W
Mar. 4 vs. Northwestern -- W
Mar. 8 @ Michigan State -- L
Projected Record: 23-8, 12-6; BTT Seed: 3
3. Illinois (21-6, 9-5):
Feb. 22 @ Ohio State -- L
Feb. 26 vs. Minnesota -- W
Mar. 3 vs. Michigan State -- W
Mar. 5 @ Penn State -- W
Projected Record: 24-7, 12-6; BTT Seed: 2
4. Ohio State (17-7, 7-6):
Feb. 22 vs. Illinois -- W
Feb. 24 vs. Penn State -- W
Feb. 28 @ Purdue -- L
Mar. 3 @ Iowa -- W
Mar. 8 vs. Northwestern -- W
Projected Record: 21-8, 11-7; BTT Seed: 4
5. Wisconsin (17-9, 8-6):
Feb. 22 @ Michigan State -- L
Mar. 3 vs. Michigan -- W
Mar. 4 @ Minnesota -- W
Mar. 9 vs. Indiana -- W
Projected Record: 20-10, 11-7; BTT Seed: 5
6. Minnesota (19-7, 7-7):
Feb. 22 vs. Northwestern -- W
Feb. 26 @ Illinois -- L
Mar. 4 vs. Wisconsin -- L
Mar. 9 vs. Michigan -- W
Projected Record: 21-9, 9-9; BTT Seed: 7
7. Michigan (17-10, 7-7):
Feb. 22 @ Iowa -- L
Feb. 26 vs. Purdue -- W
Mar. 1 @ Wisconsin -- L
Mar. 9 @ Minnesota -- L
Projected Record: 18-13, 8-10; BTT Seed: 8
8. Penn State (19-8, 8-6):
Feb. 24 @ Ohio State -- L
Feb. 28 vs. Indiana -- W
Mar. 5 vs. Illinois -- L
Mar. 7 @ Iowa -- L
Projected Record: 20-11, 9-9; BTT Seed: 6
9. Northwestern (14-10, 5-8):
Feb. 22 @ Minnesota -- L
Feb. 25 @ Indiana -- W
Feb. 28 vs. Iowa -- W
Mar. 4 @ Purdue -- L
Mar. 8 @ Ohio State -- L
Projected Record: 16-13, 7-11; BTT Seed: 9
10. Iowa (13-13, 3-10):
Feb. 22 vs. Michigan -- W
Feb. 25 @ Michigan State -- L
Feb. 28 @ Northwestern -- L
Mar. 3 vs. Ohio State -- L
Mar. 7 vs. Penn State -- W
Projected Record: 15-16, 5-13; BTT Seed: 10
11. Indiana (6-19, 1-12):
Feb. 21 @ Purdue -- L
Feb. 25 vs. Northwestern -- L
Feb. 28 @ Penn State -- L
Mar. 3 vs. Michigan State -- L
Mar. 9 @ Wisconsin -- L
Projected Record: 6-24, 1-17; BTT Seed: 11
1. Michigan State (20-5, 10-3):
Feb. 22 vs. Wisconsin -- W
Feb. 25 vs. Iowa -- W
Mar. 3 @ Illinois -- L
Mar. 3 @ Indiana -- W
Mar. 8 vs. Purdue -- W
Projected Record: 24-6, 14-4; BTT Seed: 1
2. Purdue (20-6, 9-4):
Feb. 21 vs. Indiana -- W
Feb. 26 @ Michigan -- L
Feb. 28 vs. Ohio State -- W
Mar. 4 vs. Northwestern -- W
Mar. 8 @ Michigan State -- L
Projected Record: 23-8, 12-6; BTT Seed: 3
3. Illinois (21-6, 9-5):
Feb. 22 @ Ohio State -- L
Feb. 26 vs. Minnesota -- W
Mar. 3 vs. Michigan State -- W
Mar. 5 @ Penn State -- W
Projected Record: 24-7, 12-6; BTT Seed: 2
4. Ohio State (17-7, 7-6):
Feb. 22 vs. Illinois -- W
Feb. 24 vs. Penn State -- W
Feb. 28 @ Purdue -- L
Mar. 3 @ Iowa -- W
Mar. 8 vs. Northwestern -- W
Projected Record: 21-8, 11-7; BTT Seed: 4
5. Wisconsin (17-9, 8-6):
Feb. 22 @ Michigan State -- L
Mar. 3 vs. Michigan -- W
Mar. 4 @ Minnesota -- W
Mar. 9 vs. Indiana -- W
Projected Record: 20-10, 11-7; BTT Seed: 5
6. Minnesota (19-7, 7-7):
Feb. 22 vs. Northwestern -- W
Feb. 26 @ Illinois -- L
Mar. 4 vs. Wisconsin -- L
Mar. 9 vs. Michigan -- W
Projected Record: 21-9, 9-9; BTT Seed: 7
7. Michigan (17-10, 7-7):
Feb. 22 @ Iowa -- L
Feb. 26 vs. Purdue -- W
Mar. 1 @ Wisconsin -- L
Mar. 9 @ Minnesota -- L
Projected Record: 18-13, 8-10; BTT Seed: 8
8. Penn State (19-8, 8-6):
Feb. 24 @ Ohio State -- L
Feb. 28 vs. Indiana -- W
Mar. 5 vs. Illinois -- L
Mar. 7 @ Iowa -- L
Projected Record: 20-11, 9-9; BTT Seed: 6
9. Northwestern (14-10, 5-8):
Feb. 22 @ Minnesota -- L
Feb. 25 @ Indiana -- W
Feb. 28 vs. Iowa -- W
Mar. 4 @ Purdue -- L
Mar. 8 @ Ohio State -- L
Projected Record: 16-13, 7-11; BTT Seed: 9
10. Iowa (13-13, 3-10):
Feb. 22 vs. Michigan -- W
Feb. 25 @ Michigan State -- L
Feb. 28 @ Northwestern -- L
Mar. 3 vs. Ohio State -- L
Mar. 7 vs. Penn State -- W
Projected Record: 15-16, 5-13; BTT Seed: 10
11. Indiana (6-19, 1-12):
Feb. 21 @ Purdue -- L
Feb. 25 vs. Northwestern -- L
Feb. 28 @ Penn State -- L
Mar. 3 vs. Michigan State -- L
Mar. 9 @ Wisconsin -- L
Projected Record: 6-24, 1-17; BTT Seed: 11
Thursday, February 19, 2009
How Long Does Lick' Get?
A great question was raised in response to my Monday “Week in Review” blog.(Image at right courtesy of The Des Moines Register).
“How many years do you think the current regime gets to show it can turn things around?”
I responded that the current staff will get at least four years. However, I figured the question was worthy of another blog post, and a greater examination. So, here goes.
Todd Lickliter’s first two years at Butler were nothing like what his first two years at Iowa have been. His Butler teams went 53-12 while winning a pair of Horizon League championships and appearing in the NIT and the NCAA Tournament.
That situation was completely different than the one Lickliter found himself in upon arriving in Iowa City though. Lickliter inherited a successful Butler team from Thad Matta, who left the Bulldogs for Xavier. All Lickliter had to do was continue the “Butler way” with a full cupboard.
He came to Iowa with a program in disarray. His “stars” were Tony Freeman and Justin Johnson. Iowa’s 13-19 finish came as no surprise in year one.
Entering this season, most expected some degree of improvement, and that’s been evident. The Hawks may actually finish with a worse Big Ten record than last season, but the conference is much stronger. Iowa won 10 of 13 outside the conference, beating Kansas State, Northern Iowa and Iowa State, and competing with Boston College on the road.
But the Hawks obviously have to get better. Iowa basketball has reached new lows, no matter who is to blame. Saturday’s loss to Purdue marked the first time ever that the program has suffered back-to-back seasons with 10 or more conference losses. Yet, that streak will probably reach three years after next season. Does that mean the seat will get hot for Lickliter and company?
I don’t think it does. Year four looks like the crucial year for Lickliter. Gary Barta hired Lickliter with the understanding that things probably wouldn’t be turned around immediately. Barta only had to look at Lickliter’s track record to see that the old Butler coach had no history of recruiting top level athletes. Barta had to know that the right players were not in place to execute a complex system. Lickliter is his guy. I expect him to have patience.
But patience can run out. Entering the 2010-11 season, Lickliter will likely have the most experienced team in the Big Ten, if not the nation. Check out his possible starting lineup for that season:
5- Jarryd Cole, Sr.
4- Aaron Fuller, Jr.
3- Matt Gatens, Jr.
2- Jake Kelly, Sr.
1- Jeff Peterson, Sr.
(Bench: Anthony Tucker, Jr; Andrew Brommer, Jr; Eric May So; Brennan Cougill, So; Cody Larson, Fr; Chanse Creekmur, Fr.)
All of the above players listed in the starting lineup are playing significant minutes right now. Thus, it should be a winning lineup--a team that should make the NCAA Tournament. Otherwise, things could get hot. Even at Iowa, four years is a long time for a coach who doesn’t succeed. Anything short of an NCAA Tournament berth in year four should be considered a disappointment.
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Hawkeyes In the Pros
Unlike professional football, the list of former Iowa Hawkeyes in professional basketball is brief. Here’s a rundown of some former Hawks that have taken their game to the next level. Some, like Andre Woolridge, have made a lengthy career of wallowing in professional basketball in Europe. Recent Hawkeyes Greg Brunner, Adam Haluska and Jeff Horner are still fighting to get noticed and make it in the NBA.(Image courtesy of NBA.com)
NBA
Ryan Bowen, New Orleans Hornets:
-This Season: 10 Games, 2.7 PPG, 1.5 RPG, 59.1 FG%, 33.3 FT%
-NBA Experience: 8 years
-Salary: $797,581
Ricky Davis, Los Angeles Clippers:
-This Season: 29 Games, 21.6 MPG, 6.3 PPG, 1.7 RPG, 2.2 APG, 34.2 FG%, 84.0 FT%
-NBA Experience: 10 years
-Salary: $2.3 million
Reggie Evans, Philadelphia 76ers:
-This Season: 48 Games, 12.5 MPG, 2.5 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 38.6 FG%, 61.5 FT%
-NBA Experience: 6 years
-Salary: $4.64 million
Notables Overseas
Greg Brunner:
-Currently with Angelico Biella in Italy.
-Averaging 9.1 PPG and 4.0 RPG in 11 games.
Adam Haluska:
-Currently with Hapoel Jerusalem in Isreal.
-Was briefly with the New Orleans Hornets and the Houston Rockets of the NBA; also played for short time with the Iowa Energy last season.
Jeff Horner:
-Currently with Olympique Antibes of France; played for the Iowa Energy last season.
Dean Oliver:
-Currently with Eiffel Towers Den Bosch in Belgium.
-Averaging 10.2 PPG and 6.0 APG in 13 games.
Luke Recker:
-Currently with Iurbentia Bilbao Basket of Spain.
Jared Reiner:
-Currently with Eisbaeren Bremerhaven of Germany.
-Saw NBA action with the Chicago Bulls in 2004-05 and with the Milwaukee Bucks in 2006-07.
Doug Thomas:
-Currently a starter for the Sundsvall Dragons of Sweden; played for the Iowa Energy last season.
Andre Woolridge:
-Currently with Oyak Renault in Turkey.
What Does It Mean?
Iowa has trouble producing NBA caliber players. It’s doubtful this will change under Todd Lickliter. The biggest question is probably whether it even matters. Iowa does not need to gather a large collection of future pros to win games. Sure, it’s nice when guys like Fred Brown, B.J. Armstrong, Roy Marble, Ron Lester and Bob Hansen come along. But it’s just not going to happen all that often in cold, wintry Iowa City. It’s a location with a small surrounding population with low-level high school basketball.
A nucleus of Matt Gatens, Jake Kelly, Jeff Peterson, Jarryd Cole and Anthony Tucker may be sufficient to get Iowa to an NCAA Tournament, and that’s enough to satisfy most Hawkeye fans. None will likely be on an NBA roster, but who cares? There’s a long list of stud college basketball players that never get to the NBA.
Monday, February 16, 2009
Week in Review: Injuries Deplete Hawkeyes
Iowa suffered another two-loss week--not a surprise considering the long odds stacked against them in both games. Iowa lost to two probable NCAA Tournament teams--Wisconsin and Purdue--while playing with less than their best.
A tender hammy, the result of slipping on the Kohl Center floor, kept Jeff Peterson from playing Saturday against no. 23 Purdue. To pile on, Cyrus Tate still couldn’t go, Jake Kelly missed a key late possession against Purdue because of a cut on his forehead, and Anthony Tucker continues to sit out due to academic ineligibility.
Peterson, Tate and Tucker were all starters when Iowa opened the season Nov. 14. You could make the argument that no Big Ten team has been more affected by injuries/academic troubles than Iowa. Tate was a crucial loss for a team with few low post options and Tucker looked to be a great fit as a 3-point shooter in Todd Lickliter’s offense. Throw in the carryover effect from the ACL injury that Cole suffered last year and it makes Iowa’s struggles all the more understandable.
Even with its full compliment of players, Iowa still wouldn’t be competing for an NCAA Tournament bid, but they may have two, perhaps even three more wins. Iowa simply doesn’t have the depth to effectively replace its key players.
It’s a wonder that Iowa took the Boilermakers all the way to the wire on Saturday. Kelly and Jarryd Cole were the main reasons why the Hawks nearly pulled off the stunner. Cole chipped in 13 points and grabbed five rebounds. He gave Iowa a consistent threat down low. Kelly stepped up to score 19 points, carving up the opposing defense when Iowa’s picking offense went stagnant. Had Matt Gatens shot better than his 2-of-13 from the field, Iowa may have celebrated with a heck of win. Instead, Purdue won a 49-45 snail-paced victory.
Wednesday’s loss at Wisconsin gave little hope that Iowa would be able to play close with Purdue. The Hawks competed for much of the first half until the final minute when Gatens’ technical foul highlighted a 9-0 run for the Badgers. That was pretty much the ballgame as Wisconsin took a 36-24 lead to the break on the way to a 69-52 blowout win.
Reasons For Optimism:
-Well, Kelly did score 36 points in the week on 15-for-26 shooting. He displayed the scoring ability that Hawkeye fans have seen in flashes. Lickliter is looking for more consistency from his sophomore guard. He’s had trouble stringing several good performances in a row.
-Jarryd Cole is Jarryd Cole again. He seems to be all the way back from last season’s ACL tear. He contributed a solid 18 points and 13 rebounds during the week.
-Almost beating Purdue is a positive for a team that limped into the game. I had predicted Purdue to win by four a week ago, but that was with the assumption that Peterson would be healthy and Robbie Hummel would remain sidelined. Iowa’s performance was never pretty, but it was gutsy.
Up Next: Feb. 22 vs. Michigan
Michigan likely will come into this game in desperate need of a win to enhance its NCAA Tournament profile. A loss to Iowa could pop Michigan’s bubble. The Wolverines have been awful on the road though, and winning in Carver won’t be easy for them. Michigan will have the two best players on the floor in Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims, but Iowa will put together a better team effort to win the game. A whole week off could give Peterson and Tate time to heal for this one.
Prediction:
Iowa 53, Michigan 49
A tender hammy, the result of slipping on the Kohl Center floor, kept Jeff Peterson from playing Saturday against no. 23 Purdue. To pile on, Cyrus Tate still couldn’t go, Jake Kelly missed a key late possession against Purdue because of a cut on his forehead, and Anthony Tucker continues to sit out due to academic ineligibility.
Peterson, Tate and Tucker were all starters when Iowa opened the season Nov. 14. You could make the argument that no Big Ten team has been more affected by injuries/academic troubles than Iowa. Tate was a crucial loss for a team with few low post options and Tucker looked to be a great fit as a 3-point shooter in Todd Lickliter’s offense. Throw in the carryover effect from the ACL injury that Cole suffered last year and it makes Iowa’s struggles all the more understandable.
Even with its full compliment of players, Iowa still wouldn’t be competing for an NCAA Tournament bid, but they may have two, perhaps even three more wins. Iowa simply doesn’t have the depth to effectively replace its key players.
It’s a wonder that Iowa took the Boilermakers all the way to the wire on Saturday. Kelly and Jarryd Cole were the main reasons why the Hawks nearly pulled off the stunner. Cole chipped in 13 points and grabbed five rebounds. He gave Iowa a consistent threat down low. Kelly stepped up to score 19 points, carving up the opposing defense when Iowa’s picking offense went stagnant. Had Matt Gatens shot better than his 2-of-13 from the field, Iowa may have celebrated with a heck of win. Instead, Purdue won a 49-45 snail-paced victory.
Wednesday’s loss at Wisconsin gave little hope that Iowa would be able to play close with Purdue. The Hawks competed for much of the first half until the final minute when Gatens’ technical foul highlighted a 9-0 run for the Badgers. That was pretty much the ballgame as Wisconsin took a 36-24 lead to the break on the way to a 69-52 blowout win.
Reasons For Optimism:
-Well, Kelly did score 36 points in the week on 15-for-26 shooting. He displayed the scoring ability that Hawkeye fans have seen in flashes. Lickliter is looking for more consistency from his sophomore guard. He’s had trouble stringing several good performances in a row.
-Jarryd Cole is Jarryd Cole again. He seems to be all the way back from last season’s ACL tear. He contributed a solid 18 points and 13 rebounds during the week.
-Almost beating Purdue is a positive for a team that limped into the game. I had predicted Purdue to win by four a week ago, but that was with the assumption that Peterson would be healthy and Robbie Hummel would remain sidelined. Iowa’s performance was never pretty, but it was gutsy.
Up Next: Feb. 22 vs. Michigan
Michigan likely will come into this game in desperate need of a win to enhance its NCAA Tournament profile. A loss to Iowa could pop Michigan’s bubble. The Wolverines have been awful on the road though, and winning in Carver won’t be easy for them. Michigan will have the two best players on the floor in Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims, but Iowa will put together a better team effort to win the game. A whole week off could give Peterson and Tate time to heal for this one.
Prediction:
Iowa 53, Michigan 49
Friday, February 13, 2009
Big Ten Power Rankings
This week’s rankings feature a summary on each team’s tournament chances, including projected NCAA Tournament seeds. 10 of the 11 Big Ten teams have a shot to play in the postseason. 113 teams make postseason tournaments. Don’t forget about the NIT and the College Basketball Invitational (CBI).
1. Michigan State (20-4, 10-2): This isn’t brain surgery. The Spartans will be in the Big Dance. They have by far the best profile of anyone in the conference, with a multitude of marquee victories. The only question is what seed. There’s almost no chance they fall beyond a no. 3 seed. Projected Seed: 2.
2. Illinois (20-5, 8-4): Roughing up Purdue and squeaking by Northwestern on the road vaults the Illini into second in this week’s power rankings. Illinois should expect a nice seed come March. Bruce Weber’s club boasts the 14th best RPI in the nation and a host of key wins, including one over Missouri. The Illini are already a lock for the tournament. Projected Seed: 4.
3. Purdue (18-6, 7-4): The Boilermakers impressively stomped on Penn State Wednesday night. The two straight losses prior to that victory drop their profile. Still, Purdue looks to have a high seeding. The no. 4 seed may be out of reach if Hummel cannot return soon, however. Illinois had no trouble dispensing of Purdue on Sunday. Projected Seed: 4.
4. Ohio State (17-5, 7-4): It amazed me when a recent CBS broadcast listed the Buckeyes as a bubble team. Are you kidding? Ohio State has the 21st-ranked RPI and has performed well against good competition. It has wins over Butler, Purdue and Minnesota. The Buckeyes can book their trip to the Dance. Projected Seed: 5
5. Minnesota (19-5, 7-5): The Gophers are as near a lock as it gets. They have three great wins over Louisville, Ohio State and Illinois. Their resume indicates a fairly high seed in their future. A strong finish could lift Minnesota to as high as a no. 4 seed. Look for something a little lower. Projected Seed: 7.
6. Wisconsin (15-9, 6-6): Wisconsin’s talent always suggested they should be ranked right here. They’re simply better than Michigan and Penn State. The six-game losing streak took them off tournament watch lists. Now, they’re right back on them. While Wisconsin might be on the outside looking in at the moment, a favorable schedule down the stretch bodes well for a Tournament berth. Projected Seed: 9.
7. Michigan (14-10, 5-7): The Wolves are reeling. They’ve lost seven out of nine, and are still hanging their hats on early wins over UCLA and Duke. It doesn’t look like it will be enough. John Belein’s team is 1-4 in conference road games and four of their last six are on the road. In other words, hello NIT. The NCAA Tournament drought will continue. Projection: NIT.
8. Penn State (17-8, 6-6): The Nittany Lions have a better record than the Wolverines, but at least Michigan played some teams with a pulse outside the conference. Penn State has a shocking win at Michigan State and a win against a beat-up Purdue team on its profile--and that’s pretty much it. Projection: NIT.
9. Northwestern (13-9, 4-7): The loss at Iowa likely ended Northwestern’s faint hopes of reaching its first ever NCAA Tournament. Penn State wishes it had the an out-of-conference victory like the ‘Cats secured over Florida State. Bill Carmody deserves to be commended for having his team in NCAA Tournament contention this late, but it’s not going to happen. The NIT may even pass on the ‘Cats because of their lack of sex appeal. Projection: NIT.
10. Iowa (13-12, 3-9): The Hawkeyes could stay above the .500 mark if they can just take care of a few of their home games (four of their last six are at home). Any postseason tournament would be cause for celebration in Iowa City. The CBI could come calling if Iowa can stay at the .500 mark. Even if they do though, the Hawks could still get passed over. Projection: No tournament.
11. Indiana (6-17, 1-10): The Hoosiers’ chances of making a postseason tournament are about the same as my chances of beating LeBron in a one-on-one matchup. (or a SportsCenter show with no mention of A-Rod). NCAA Tournament appearances aren’t far off though. Tom Crean is one of the best in the business. Indiana is dangerous enough to give some teams that dreaded “bad loss.” Projection: Season’s over.
1. Michigan State (20-4, 10-2): This isn’t brain surgery. The Spartans will be in the Big Dance. They have by far the best profile of anyone in the conference, with a multitude of marquee victories. The only question is what seed. There’s almost no chance they fall beyond a no. 3 seed. Projected Seed: 2.
2. Illinois (20-5, 8-4): Roughing up Purdue and squeaking by Northwestern on the road vaults the Illini into second in this week’s power rankings. Illinois should expect a nice seed come March. Bruce Weber’s club boasts the 14th best RPI in the nation and a host of key wins, including one over Missouri. The Illini are already a lock for the tournament. Projected Seed: 4.
3. Purdue (18-6, 7-4): The Boilermakers impressively stomped on Penn State Wednesday night. The two straight losses prior to that victory drop their profile. Still, Purdue looks to have a high seeding. The no. 4 seed may be out of reach if Hummel cannot return soon, however. Illinois had no trouble dispensing of Purdue on Sunday. Projected Seed: 4.
4. Ohio State (17-5, 7-4): It amazed me when a recent CBS broadcast listed the Buckeyes as a bubble team. Are you kidding? Ohio State has the 21st-ranked RPI and has performed well against good competition. It has wins over Butler, Purdue and Minnesota. The Buckeyes can book their trip to the Dance. Projected Seed: 5
5. Minnesota (19-5, 7-5): The Gophers are as near a lock as it gets. They have three great wins over Louisville, Ohio State and Illinois. Their resume indicates a fairly high seed in their future. A strong finish could lift Minnesota to as high as a no. 4 seed. Look for something a little lower. Projected Seed: 7.
6. Wisconsin (15-9, 6-6): Wisconsin’s talent always suggested they should be ranked right here. They’re simply better than Michigan and Penn State. The six-game losing streak took them off tournament watch lists. Now, they’re right back on them. While Wisconsin might be on the outside looking in at the moment, a favorable schedule down the stretch bodes well for a Tournament berth. Projected Seed: 9.
7. Michigan (14-10, 5-7): The Wolves are reeling. They’ve lost seven out of nine, and are still hanging their hats on early wins over UCLA and Duke. It doesn’t look like it will be enough. John Belein’s team is 1-4 in conference road games and four of their last six are on the road. In other words, hello NIT. The NCAA Tournament drought will continue. Projection: NIT.
8. Penn State (17-8, 6-6): The Nittany Lions have a better record than the Wolverines, but at least Michigan played some teams with a pulse outside the conference. Penn State has a shocking win at Michigan State and a win against a beat-up Purdue team on its profile--and that’s pretty much it. Projection: NIT.
9. Northwestern (13-9, 4-7): The loss at Iowa likely ended Northwestern’s faint hopes of reaching its first ever NCAA Tournament. Penn State wishes it had the an out-of-conference victory like the ‘Cats secured over Florida State. Bill Carmody deserves to be commended for having his team in NCAA Tournament contention this late, but it’s not going to happen. The NIT may even pass on the ‘Cats because of their lack of sex appeal. Projection: NIT.
10. Iowa (13-12, 3-9): The Hawkeyes could stay above the .500 mark if they can just take care of a few of their home games (four of their last six are at home). Any postseason tournament would be cause for celebration in Iowa City. The CBI could come calling if Iowa can stay at the .500 mark. Even if they do though, the Hawks could still get passed over. Projection: No tournament.
11. Indiana (6-17, 1-10): The Hoosiers’ chances of making a postseason tournament are about the same as my chances of beating LeBron in a one-on-one matchup. (or a SportsCenter show with no mention of A-Rod). NCAA Tournament appearances aren’t far off though. Tom Crean is one of the best in the business. Indiana is dangerous enough to give some teams that dreaded “bad loss.” Projection: Season’s over.
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Is Jeff Peterson the Next Jeff Horner?
It’s a question that many would find puzzling. Admit it, you’re wondering how the two could be put together in the same sentence. Jeff Horner came from Mason City, Iowa, committed to Iowa as a ninth-grader, was ranked among the top 100 recruits in his class, and was the only Hawkeye ever to register four seasons with more than 200 points, 100 rebounds and 100 assists.(Mugshots courtesy of Hawkeyesports.com).
Meanwhile, Jeff Peterson came to Iowa via Hyattsville, Md., with little fanfare as the first recruit at Iowa for head coach Todd Lickliter. In his freshman season he failed to produce even close to what Horner did as a diaper dandy. Peterson averaged more than three turnovers per game in only 24.9 minutes per game. His play frustrated Hawkeye fans more than it excited them.
But take a look at what Peterson has done this year--all while playing with a broken bone in his wrist. While Horner’s sophomore season trumps what Peterson is doing this year, the numbers aren’t enormously in Horner’s favor. Check out how Peterson’s statistics from this year compare to Horner’s sophomore season in 2003-04.
Jeff Peterson (this season):
MPG: 33.0
PPG: 10.6
RPG: 2.4
APG: 4.2
TPG: 3.2
FG%: 45.0
3PT%: 39.7
FT%: 82.5
Jeff Horner (sophomore season):
MPG: 37.4
PPG: 13.0
RPG: 5.3
APG: 4.2
TPG: 2.6
FG%: 44.0
3PT%: 42.5
FT%: 86.0
Final Verdict: Peterson probably won’t match Horner’s career totals--Horner’s school record of 612 career assists is safe for the foreseeable future. However, Peterson has improved tremendously. Horner was recognized as a fabulous shooter and Peterson’s shooting percentages aren’t all that different.
Horner has a sizeable edge in rebounds, averaged more points and turned it over less than Peterson in more minutes. Thus, Peterson has a ways to go. I say Peterson ends up short of reaching Horner’s production but that he makes Hawkeye fans forget that there was ever a point guard problem.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
The Numbers Game
Get out your calculators, it’s time to analyze some key statistics, as well as win probabilities, in relation to Iowa hoops. Some under-the-radar statistics help in uncovering the real truth. You think Iowa is woeful on offense? They actually fare better on the offensive end than on the defensive side--it’s a fact.
Game-by-Game Win Probability
Statistical wizard Ken Pomeroy manages a website with all the stats you need to know to keep informed about Division I college basketball. The site includes several unusual statistics. One of these is win probability. Here are Iowa’s chances of winning each of their last seven games, according to Pomeroy’s formula.
Feb. 11 @Wisconsin -- 16%
Feb. 14 Purdue -- 29%
Feb. 22 Michigan -- 58%
Feb. 25 @Michigan St. -- 9%
Feb. 28 @Northwestern -- 27%
Mar. 3 Ohio St. -- 45%
Mar. 7 Penn St. -- 62%
Adding up the percentages from all the games, you get 246 percent, or 2.46 wins. Thus, Iowa fans should expect to see two or three more wins in the Hawkeyes’ last seven games before the Big Ten Tournament. According to this site, Iowa stands a better than average chance to win home games over Michigan and Penn State.
Surprisingly, Iowa has a 52 percent chance of winning a road game. This seems quite optimistic, though. Their chances of winning at Michigan State may as well be zero. Northwestern certainly presents Iowa’s best chance to end their woes on the road, but even that won’t be easy.
Offensive/Defensive Efficiency
On ESPN’s coverage of college basketball, you’re probably used to seeing team statistics for offensive and defensive points per game scroll across the bottom of the screen. These stats are mainstream and widely accepted as the best markers for judging what teams are best on particular ends of the floor. Don’t pay any attention. Teams styles differ widely in college basketball. VMI, the fastest-paced team in Division I basketball (averaging 81.4 possessions per game), averages 24 more offensive possessions than Denver, which ranks last among all Division I teams. So of course VMI is going to average more points per game than Denver.
The real judge of efficiency both offensively and defensively is points per possession. This statistic eliminates the variable--number of possessions--to provide a more accurate rate to evaluate a team’s performance.
Below are the Big Ten ranks for points per possession offensively and defensively, and the differentials of these two stats. The differentials basically give you a power ranking, although it’s accuracy certainly comes into question because of the varying difficulties of each teams’ schedules. For example, Michigan is obviously better than the 10th best team in the Big Ten. Their strength of schedule ranks 15th in the country, meaning the difficulty of their opponents factors into their low ranking.
Lastly, Iowa ranks 5th offensively compared to 10th defensively in relation to other Big Ten teams--surprising to say the least. Consider that Iowa ranks 292nd in the country in offensive points per game but 15th in the country in defensive points per game. Again, it’s not necessarily imperative for a team to score a ton of points or hold the opponent to a certain amount. Teams just need to be efficient with their possessions.
Points Per Possession (Offense):
1. Michigan St. -- 1.123
2. Wisconsin -- 1.085
3. Penn St. -- 1.078
4. Ohio St. -- 1.075
5. Iowa -- 1.073
6. Northwestern -- 1.066
7. Michigan -- 1.057
8. Minnesota -- 1.056
9. Purdue -- 1.043
10. Illinois -- 1.042
11. Indiana -- 0.908
Points Per Possession (Defense):
1. Purdue -- 0.872
2. Illinois -- 0.884
3. Ohio St. -- 0.956
4. Michigan St. -- 0.957
5. Minnesota -- 0.960
6. Northwestern -- 0.977
7. Penn St. -- 0.982
9. Wisconsin -- 0.997
8. Michigan -- 0.998
10. Iowa -- 1.012
11. Indiana -- 1.055
Points Per Possession Differential:
1. Purdue -- (+0.171)
2. Michigan St. -- (+0.166)
3. Illinois -- (+0.158)
4. Ohio St. -- (+0.119)
T5. Minnesota -- (+0.096)
T5. Penn St. -- (+0.096)
7. Northwestern -- (+0.089)
8. Wisconsin -- (+0.088)
9. Iowa -- (+0.061)
10. Michigan -- (+0.059)
11. Indiana -- (-0.147)
Work the Clock
Iowa averages 57.5 offensive possessions per game, good for 343rd among 344 Division I college basketball teams. The national average is 66.9. This statistic means that Iowa plays a much slower pace than the average team.
While this kind of basketball lulls Carver crowds to sleep, it’s a smart strategy for a team low on athleticism and speed. By reducing the number of possessions, Iowa gives itself a much better chance of hanging in the game with some of the elite teams in the conference.
Game-by-Game Win Probability
Statistical wizard Ken Pomeroy manages a website with all the stats you need to know to keep informed about Division I college basketball. The site includes several unusual statistics. One of these is win probability. Here are Iowa’s chances of winning each of their last seven games, according to Pomeroy’s formula.
Feb. 11 @Wisconsin -- 16%
Feb. 14 Purdue -- 29%
Feb. 22 Michigan -- 58%
Feb. 25 @Michigan St. -- 9%
Feb. 28 @Northwestern -- 27%
Mar. 3 Ohio St. -- 45%
Mar. 7 Penn St. -- 62%
Adding up the percentages from all the games, you get 246 percent, or 2.46 wins. Thus, Iowa fans should expect to see two or three more wins in the Hawkeyes’ last seven games before the Big Ten Tournament. According to this site, Iowa stands a better than average chance to win home games over Michigan and Penn State.
Surprisingly, Iowa has a 52 percent chance of winning a road game. This seems quite optimistic, though. Their chances of winning at Michigan State may as well be zero. Northwestern certainly presents Iowa’s best chance to end their woes on the road, but even that won’t be easy.
Offensive/Defensive Efficiency
On ESPN’s coverage of college basketball, you’re probably used to seeing team statistics for offensive and defensive points per game scroll across the bottom of the screen. These stats are mainstream and widely accepted as the best markers for judging what teams are best on particular ends of the floor. Don’t pay any attention. Teams styles differ widely in college basketball. VMI, the fastest-paced team in Division I basketball (averaging 81.4 possessions per game), averages 24 more offensive possessions than Denver, which ranks last among all Division I teams. So of course VMI is going to average more points per game than Denver.
The real judge of efficiency both offensively and defensively is points per possession. This statistic eliminates the variable--number of possessions--to provide a more accurate rate to evaluate a team’s performance.
Below are the Big Ten ranks for points per possession offensively and defensively, and the differentials of these two stats. The differentials basically give you a power ranking, although it’s accuracy certainly comes into question because of the varying difficulties of each teams’ schedules. For example, Michigan is obviously better than the 10th best team in the Big Ten. Their strength of schedule ranks 15th in the country, meaning the difficulty of their opponents factors into their low ranking.
Lastly, Iowa ranks 5th offensively compared to 10th defensively in relation to other Big Ten teams--surprising to say the least. Consider that Iowa ranks 292nd in the country in offensive points per game but 15th in the country in defensive points per game. Again, it’s not necessarily imperative for a team to score a ton of points or hold the opponent to a certain amount. Teams just need to be efficient with their possessions.
Points Per Possession (Offense):
1. Michigan St. -- 1.123
2. Wisconsin -- 1.085
3. Penn St. -- 1.078
4. Ohio St. -- 1.075
5. Iowa -- 1.073
6. Northwestern -- 1.066
7. Michigan -- 1.057
8. Minnesota -- 1.056
9. Purdue -- 1.043
10. Illinois -- 1.042
11. Indiana -- 0.908
Points Per Possession (Defense):
1. Purdue -- 0.872
2. Illinois -- 0.884
3. Ohio St. -- 0.956
4. Michigan St. -- 0.957
5. Minnesota -- 0.960
6. Northwestern -- 0.977
7. Penn St. -- 0.982
9. Wisconsin -- 0.997
8. Michigan -- 0.998
10. Iowa -- 1.012
11. Indiana -- 1.055
Points Per Possession Differential:
1. Purdue -- (+0.171)
2. Michigan St. -- (+0.166)
3. Illinois -- (+0.158)
4. Ohio St. -- (+0.119)
T5. Minnesota -- (+0.096)
T5. Penn St. -- (+0.096)
7. Northwestern -- (+0.089)
8. Wisconsin -- (+0.088)
9. Iowa -- (+0.061)
10. Michigan -- (+0.059)
11. Indiana -- (-0.147)
Work the Clock
Iowa averages 57.5 offensive possessions per game, good for 343rd among 344 Division I college basketball teams. The national average is 66.9. This statistic means that Iowa plays a much slower pace than the average team.
While this kind of basketball lulls Carver crowds to sleep, it’s a smart strategy for a team low on athleticism and speed. By reducing the number of possessions, Iowa gives itself a much better chance of hanging in the game with some of the elite teams in the conference.
Monday, February 9, 2009
Tucker Says He's Staying at Iowa
Anthony Tucker said today that he will return to the Hawkeyes next season after speaking to the media for the first time since he failed to meet Big Ten academic requirements.
Message boards swirled with talk of a potential transfer following Tucker's declared academic ineligibility on top of an earlier suspension for an alcohol-related incident. Tucker's commitment to return next season was hardly official, however, still refreshing for Hawkeye fans to hear.
Among other things, Tucker also expressed disappointment in letting his teammates and coaches down and told reporters that one of his grades ended up "about a letter grade and a half" lower than what he had been aware of prior to final exams.
The Hawkeyes certainly could use Tucker's shooting ability. He still ranks second on the team in three-point field goals despite playing in only 14 games. He averaged 10.4 points and shot 42.7 percent from three-point range.
-From the Iowa City Press-Citizen: "Anthony Tucker calls suspension 'a wake-up call'"
-Tucker Interview Transcript: Hawkeyenation.com
Message boards swirled with talk of a potential transfer following Tucker's declared academic ineligibility on top of an earlier suspension for an alcohol-related incident. Tucker's commitment to return next season was hardly official, however, still refreshing for Hawkeye fans to hear.
Among other things, Tucker also expressed disappointment in letting his teammates and coaches down and told reporters that one of his grades ended up "about a letter grade and a half" lower than what he had been aware of prior to final exams.
The Hawkeyes certainly could use Tucker's shooting ability. He still ranks second on the team in three-point field goals despite playing in only 14 games. He averaged 10.4 points and shot 42.7 percent from three-point range.
-From the Iowa City Press-Citizen: "Anthony Tucker calls suspension 'a wake-up call'"
-Tucker Interview Transcript: Hawkeyenation.com
Week in Review: Hawks End Four-Game Skid
The Hawkeyes started the week off rough, losing in uninspiring fashion to a Hoosiers team that had lost 11 straight games. Indiana grabbed their first conference victory and celebrated like the Pittsburgh Steelers after the Super Bowl.(Photo above: Jeff Peterson versus Northwestern, courtesy of the AP)
Iowa shot only 30 percent from deep (6-for-20) and again had several scoring droughts, including one at the end of the first half and the start of the second half, spanning 4:37 that allowed Indiana to build a 33-20 advantage.
The Hawks never fully recovered. They finally turned it on at the end when back-to-back threes by Aaron Fuller and Devan Bawinkel cut Indiana’s lead to six with 2:40 remaining. It wasn’t enough, however, and left Matt Gatens to question the leadership and character of the team.
Gatens and his teammates responded with a decent performance at home Saturday in a 56-51 win over Northwestern. The Hawks made 12 three-pointers and shot 88.9 percent (16-for-18) from the free throw line to key the victory. Northwestern’s 1-3-1 defense forced 17 turnovers but couldn’t overcome an abysmal shooting night (37.5 percent from the field).
Peterson Emerges as Scorer, Kelly Continues Cold Shooting
Point guard Jeff Peterson is getting better and better. He still turns it over too much (he had six turnovers in each game this past week) but his shooting touch has come a long way. He enters the week shooting 39.3 percent from beyond the arc, a far cry from his 26.9 percent clip last season. His shot’s not pretty, but you no longer have to cringe when he tosses up a three. In addition, he is the best on the team at getting penetration into the lane. Peterson is well on his way to being a quality Big Ten trigger man.
Meanwhile, Jake Kelly was mostly a no-show last week. He totaled 10 points on 3-for-11 shooting. For a team struggling to score, Kelly needs to step up. He should be a consistent double-figure scorer as he’s arguably the second offensive option after Gatens. The play of Kelly and the health of Cyrus Tate will be key factors the rest of the way.
Who’s Playing, Who’s Sitting
-David Palmer played five combined minutes in the two games last week. Palmer got 22 minutes at Purdue, 33 versus Wisconsin, and 28 at Penn State. For now though, it appears Palmer has fallen back to the end of the bench.
-Tate plucked five rebounds in only 13 minutes in the win over Northwestern. After being out for seven games the Hawks are glad to see him back in the mix.
-Bawinkel started and played 33 minutes Saturday, the most of any game this season. He’s played in as little as three minutes in one instance this season. Like some other Iowa players, he’s seen his playing time fluctuate drastically from game to game.
-Todd Lickliter’s not afraid to ride his best players. Peterson and Kelly both played 40 minutes on Saturday. Gatens played only 25 against Northwestern due to foul trouble but saw action in 39 minutes at Indiana.
Up Next: Feb. 11 @ Wisconsin; Feb. 14 vs. Purdue.
This week poses another difficult task for the Hawkeyes. They’ve never won at the Kohl Center, and Lickliter is 0-3 against Purdue. Iowa has the potential to compete with the Badgers but it’s hard to be confident in an Iowa team that is 0-6 in conference road games.
Robbie Hummel could miss this weekend’s game as a stress fracture in his back continues to give him problems. He sat out Sunday’s loss at Illinois. Iowa has a shot to pull the upset if Hummel can’t go. The athletic department should make it a priority to enhance the student section for this one. It could be the difference against a tough Boilermakers squad.
Predictions:
Wisconsin 64, Iowa 56
Purdue 62, Iowa 58
Saturday, February 7, 2009
Lick' Chasing Chipola Pair
According to a HawkeyeReport.com update, “Coach Lickliter and his staff are working hard to land a talented point guard and forward from (Chipola Junior College).”
Chipola’s 6-foot freshman point guard Malcolm Armstead and 6-foot-6 sophomore forward Torye Pelham could give Iowa immediate help as additions to the 2009 class.
Armstead, a Florence, Ala., native, has apparently received only modest recruiting interest. ESPN.com rated him as the 69th best point guard in the class of 2007.
Rivals.com rates Pelham, a Nashville, Tenn., native, a three-star prospect and lists offers from Oklahoma, Texas Tech and UAB. The site also indicates Pelham as being “recruited by” Iowa assistant Chad Walthall.
The Jackson County Floridian reported on Oct. 16, 2008, that scouts from several NBA teams were on hand to watch Pelham and the rest of Chipola College in a scrimmage game. Chipola coach Greg Heiar spoke with the scouts who seemed to come away impressed with Pelham.
“They really liked Torye Pelham’s athleticism,” Heiar told the Floridian. “But they think he’s a two-year college guy, then he’ll be ready.”
Armstead is averaging 6.3 points, 3.1 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.8 steals, while shooting 59.3 percent from the field and 28-of-44 from three in 23 games played.
Pelham is averaging 8.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, 1.0 assists, while shooting 58.3 percent from the field in 21 games played.
Chipola College is ranked as the no. 1 junior college in the country.
Chipola’s 6-foot freshman point guard Malcolm Armstead and 6-foot-6 sophomore forward Torye Pelham could give Iowa immediate help as additions to the 2009 class.
Armstead, a Florence, Ala., native, has apparently received only modest recruiting interest. ESPN.com rated him as the 69th best point guard in the class of 2007.
Rivals.com rates Pelham, a Nashville, Tenn., native, a three-star prospect and lists offers from Oklahoma, Texas Tech and UAB. The site also indicates Pelham as being “recruited by” Iowa assistant Chad Walthall.
The Jackson County Floridian reported on Oct. 16, 2008, that scouts from several NBA teams were on hand to watch Pelham and the rest of Chipola College in a scrimmage game. Chipola coach Greg Heiar spoke with the scouts who seemed to come away impressed with Pelham.
“They really liked Torye Pelham’s athleticism,” Heiar told the Floridian. “But they think he’s a two-year college guy, then he’ll be ready.”
Armstead is averaging 6.3 points, 3.1 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.8 steals, while shooting 59.3 percent from the field and 28-of-44 from three in 23 games played.
Pelham is averaging 8.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, 1.0 assists, while shooting 58.3 percent from the field in 21 games played.
Chipola College is ranked as the no. 1 junior college in the country.
Friday, February 6, 2009
Big Ten Power Rankings
This week's edition focuses on each team's tournament profile. I've included RPI rankings, strength of schedule, top 50 RPI wins, and losses to teams outside the RPI top 100.
1. Michigan State (18-4, 8-2)
-RPI: 5
-SOS: 4
-Top 50 Wins: Kansas (17); Illinois (19); Minnesota (24); @Minnesota (24); Ohio St. (26); @Ohio St. (26); Oklahoma St. (31); Texas (39).
-100+ Losses: None.
2. Purdue (17-5, 6-3)
-RPI: 33
-SOS: 47
-Top 50 Wins: @Minnesota (24); Wisconsin (35); @Wisconsin (35); Davidson (41); Boston College (49); Michigan (50).
-100+ Losses: None.
3. Minnesota (18-4, 6-4)
-RPI: 24
-SOS: 45
-Top 50 Wins: Louisville (11); Illinois (19); Ohio St. (26); @Wisconsin (35).
-100+ Losses: None.
4. Ohio State (16-5, 6-4)
-RPI: 26
-SOS: 29
-Top 50 Wins: Butler (10); Purdue (33); @Miami (45); Michigan (50); @Michigan (50).
-100+ Losses: None.
5. Illinois (18-5, 6-4)
-RPI: 19
-SOS: 43
-Top 50 Wins: Missouri (22); Ohio St. (26); @Purdue (33); Wisconsin (35); Michigan (50).
-100+ Losses: None.
6. Michigan (15-8, 5-6)
-RPI: 50
-SOS: 17
-Top 50 Wins: Duke (2); Illinois (19); UCLA (27).
-100+ Losses: None.
7. Penn State (17-6, 6-4)
-RPI: 65
-SOS: 106
-Top 50 Wins: @Michigan St. (5); Purdue (33); Michigan (50).
-100+ Losses: None.
8. Wisconsin (13-9, 4-6)
-RPI: 35
-SOS: 3
-Top 50 Wins: Illinois (19); @Virginia Tech (40); @Michigan (50).
-100+ Losses: None.
9. Northwestern (13-7, 4-5)
-RPI: 55
-SOS: 35
-Top 50 Wins: @Michigan St. (5); Minnesota (24); Florida St. (29); Wisconsin (35).
-100+ Losses: None.
10. Iowa (12-11, 2-8)
-RPI: 98
-SOS: 61
-Top 50 Wins: Wisconsin (35).
-100+ Losses: @Drake (134); @Indiana (186).
11. Indiana (6-15, 1-8)
-RPI: 186
-SOS: 13
-Top 50 Wins: None.
-100+ Losses: Lipscomb (316).
1. Michigan State (18-4, 8-2)
-RPI: 5
-SOS: 4
-Top 50 Wins: Kansas (17); Illinois (19); Minnesota (24); @Minnesota (24); Ohio St. (26); @Ohio St. (26); Oklahoma St. (31); Texas (39).
-100+ Losses: None.
2. Purdue (17-5, 6-3)
-RPI: 33
-SOS: 47
-Top 50 Wins: @Minnesota (24); Wisconsin (35); @Wisconsin (35); Davidson (41); Boston College (49); Michigan (50).
-100+ Losses: None.
3. Minnesota (18-4, 6-4)
-RPI: 24
-SOS: 45
-Top 50 Wins: Louisville (11); Illinois (19); Ohio St. (26); @Wisconsin (35).
-100+ Losses: None.
4. Ohio State (16-5, 6-4)
-RPI: 26
-SOS: 29
-Top 50 Wins: Butler (10); Purdue (33); @Miami (45); Michigan (50); @Michigan (50).
-100+ Losses: None.
5. Illinois (18-5, 6-4)
-RPI: 19
-SOS: 43
-Top 50 Wins: Missouri (22); Ohio St. (26); @Purdue (33); Wisconsin (35); Michigan (50).
-100+ Losses: None.
6. Michigan (15-8, 5-6)
-RPI: 50
-SOS: 17
-Top 50 Wins: Duke (2); Illinois (19); UCLA (27).
-100+ Losses: None.
7. Penn State (17-6, 6-4)
-RPI: 65
-SOS: 106
-Top 50 Wins: @Michigan St. (5); Purdue (33); Michigan (50).
-100+ Losses: None.
8. Wisconsin (13-9, 4-6)
-RPI: 35
-SOS: 3
-Top 50 Wins: Illinois (19); @Virginia Tech (40); @Michigan (50).
-100+ Losses: None.
9. Northwestern (13-7, 4-5)
-RPI: 55
-SOS: 35
-Top 50 Wins: @Michigan St. (5); Minnesota (24); Florida St. (29); Wisconsin (35).
-100+ Losses: None.
10. Iowa (12-11, 2-8)
-RPI: 98
-SOS: 61
-Top 50 Wins: Wisconsin (35).
-100+ Losses: @Drake (134); @Indiana (186).
11. Indiana (6-15, 1-8)
-RPI: 186
-SOS: 13
-Top 50 Wins: None.
-100+ Losses: Lipscomb (316).
Thursday, February 5, 2009
Gatens Ticked
Freshman Matt Gatens was not in a jovial mood following Iowa's loss at Indiana last night. He expressed much frustration and despair. Here's what he had to say, courtesy of Pat Harty's article in the Press-Citizen. (Matt Gatens mug at left--Hawkeyesports.com).--------------------------------
"We've just got to come out with more competitive spirit," Gatens said. "It's just like we didn't want to be out there. We've got to come out stronger and want to take their throats and take their hearts.
"It's frustrating right now to be a part of. But we're making strides. Without Cyrus it hurts, but you don't want to make excuses.
"In the huddle I try to pump our guys up. And in the second half I got in some of our guys' faces. And we played better.
"And if I have to do that, whatever the coaches want me to do. Some senior leadership would be good. We don't have any seniors on the floor right now. But it doesn't really matter how old we are."
------------------------------
It's nice to see that someone really cares. Gatens almost single-handedly led Iowa back with a huge 21-point second half in Bloomington. He plays with the passion, fire and heart that you just can't teach, and he's not used to losing.
Gatens is crying for some support. Would someone please give it to him?
Breaking Down Recruiting
Continuing with this week's recruiting theme, allow me to break down Iowa's future. (Brennan Cougill photo at left is courtesy of the Sioux City Journal).
2009
The 2009 class contains two in-state preps already signed, sealed, delivered. Sioux City Heelan big man Brennan Cougill should see minutes immediately with an already thin Iowa frontcourt. Cougill's been dominant at the Class 3A level, surpassing his school's career points record with 1,342. Through Jan. 31, Cougill posted 18.8 points per game, good for 10th among Class 3A players. There are questions as to whether he can be effective as a Big Ten post, however. His only other offers were from mid-majors Indiana St., Loyola-Chicago, Southern Illinois and Wis.-Green Bay.
Dubuque Wahlert star Eric May brings a steady outside shot and athleticism. May leads all Class 3A players in scoring, averaging 23.6 points per game. He's known best for his miraculous three-point shot from near half-court at the buzzer to give Wahlert a state title. The YouTube video of this shot has been viewed over 12,500 times. May should be a good fit for this offense. He turned down offers from Butler, Indiana St. and Northern Iowa.
The Hawks could yet add another player to this class. They have an offer on the table for Chicago prep point guard Darius Smith. Unfortunatley for Iowa, Smith is likely to go elswhere. He can choose from several top programs. A point guard like Indiana's Kierre Greenwood is much more realistic.
2010
Iowa scored early commitments in South Dakota forward Cody Larson and Marshalltown, Iowa, product Chanse Creekmur. Larson is, without a doubt, the gem of the class. ESPN.com ranks him as the 22nd best power forward in his class. ESPN.com says Larson "is a decent pressure free ball handler and good defensive rebounder," but "must improve his perimeter shooting and add some scoring moves off the dribble." Larson should be the type of player Iowa can build around in the future.
Small forward Chanse Creekmur looks like more of a developmental project than Larson. Creekmur is a terrific shooter, typical of what Lickliter wants in his guard/small forward types. He averages 18.4 points per game, good for seventh in Class 4A, just above Harrison Barnes' 18.3 per game. Like May, Creekmur turned down an offer from Butler.
The Hawks will graduate Devan Bawinkel, Jermain Davis and David Palmer in 2010. Thus, Iowa is likely to add at least one more to this class. If they can add Kyle Kelm or Alex Rossi they'll have a solid class. Hawkeye fans should forget about Barnes. It would be a major shock if he stayed in-state.
2011
It's nice to see Iowa thinking big. They're chasing big-time point guard recruit Chasson Randle of Rock Island, Ill. They probably won't get him though.
They may have a chance for Justin Gant of Terre Haute, Ind. Gant is 6-foot-8 as a high school sophomore but needs to add to his 190-pound physique. Keep in mind that it's very early to tell who Iowa's looking at for this class.
2012
Iowa will look to secure Linn-Mar star Freshman Marcus Paige. The 5-foot-10 point guard has offers from Iowa State and Northern Iowa. It's surprising Iowa has not yet responded with an offer--it's coming though. Ninth-graders don't get Division I offers unless they're special.
2009
The 2009 class contains two in-state preps already signed, sealed, delivered. Sioux City Heelan big man Brennan Cougill should see minutes immediately with an already thin Iowa frontcourt. Cougill's been dominant at the Class 3A level, surpassing his school's career points record with 1,342. Through Jan. 31, Cougill posted 18.8 points per game, good for 10th among Class 3A players. There are questions as to whether he can be effective as a Big Ten post, however. His only other offers were from mid-majors Indiana St., Loyola-Chicago, Southern Illinois and Wis.-Green Bay.
Dubuque Wahlert star Eric May brings a steady outside shot and athleticism. May leads all Class 3A players in scoring, averaging 23.6 points per game. He's known best for his miraculous three-point shot from near half-court at the buzzer to give Wahlert a state title. The YouTube video of this shot has been viewed over 12,500 times. May should be a good fit for this offense. He turned down offers from Butler, Indiana St. and Northern Iowa.
The Hawks could yet add another player to this class. They have an offer on the table for Chicago prep point guard Darius Smith. Unfortunatley for Iowa, Smith is likely to go elswhere. He can choose from several top programs. A point guard like Indiana's Kierre Greenwood is much more realistic.
2010
Iowa scored early commitments in South Dakota forward Cody Larson and Marshalltown, Iowa, product Chanse Creekmur. Larson is, without a doubt, the gem of the class. ESPN.com ranks him as the 22nd best power forward in his class. ESPN.com says Larson "is a decent pressure free ball handler and good defensive rebounder," but "must improve his perimeter shooting and add some scoring moves off the dribble." Larson should be the type of player Iowa can build around in the future.
Small forward Chanse Creekmur looks like more of a developmental project than Larson. Creekmur is a terrific shooter, typical of what Lickliter wants in his guard/small forward types. He averages 18.4 points per game, good for seventh in Class 4A, just above Harrison Barnes' 18.3 per game. Like May, Creekmur turned down an offer from Butler.
The Hawks will graduate Devan Bawinkel, Jermain Davis and David Palmer in 2010. Thus, Iowa is likely to add at least one more to this class. If they can add Kyle Kelm or Alex Rossi they'll have a solid class. Hawkeye fans should forget about Barnes. It would be a major shock if he stayed in-state.
2011
It's nice to see Iowa thinking big. They're chasing big-time point guard recruit Chasson Randle of Rock Island, Ill. They probably won't get him though.
They may have a chance for Justin Gant of Terre Haute, Ind. Gant is 6-foot-8 as a high school sophomore but needs to add to his 190-pound physique. Keep in mind that it's very early to tell who Iowa's looking at for this class.
2012
Iowa will look to secure Linn-Mar star Freshman Marcus Paige. The 5-foot-10 point guard has offers from Iowa State and Northern Iowa. It's surprising Iowa has not yet responded with an offer--it's coming though. Ninth-graders don't get Division I offers unless they're special.
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
Recruiting Rundown
Eric May at the state tournament last season.
(Photo from Sioux City Journal)
With national signing day upon us for football, it's a good time to take a look at Iowa basketball recruiting. Here's a rundown of who's signed, who's committed, who's been offered, and who Iowa's rumored to be taking a look at. I've included the number of stars each player got from Rivals.com and their overall rating from espn.com on a 1oo-point scale (Some players do not have rankings).
2009
Signed:
Brennan Cougill- ESPN Rating: 88, Rivals: ***; (6-9, 260, C, Sioux City, IA)
Tom Kakert’s take: “Cougill's a big man, which will be a need when you graduate (Cyrus) Tate. He's a skilled big man, a space-eater with soft hands. He's not the most athletic but he can catch and shoot, and he knows how to use his body. He's not a great leaper but he's a good rebounder. He fits into Lickliter's idea of a multidimensional big.” More...
Eric May- ESPN Rating: 86, Rivals: ***; (6-4, 215, SF, Dubuque, IA)
Kakert’s take: “May is a tough, hard-nosed guy. He looks more like a tight end in his basketball jersey. He's a winner. He's not the fastest or the biggest guy but he's a clutch performer -- we saw that last year at the state tournament. He's also a really good shooter. He's going to be a match up problem in Lickliter's offense.” More...
Offered:
Darius Smith- ESPN Rating: 89, Rivals: ***; (6-1, 170, PG, Chicago): Also has offers from Arizona, Arizona St., DePaul, Indiana, Kentucky, and Marquette. More...
Possible Targets:
Terran Carter- ESPN Rating: 75, Rivals: NA; (6-5, 220, PF, Woodland Hills, CA). More...
Ritchie Edwards- ESPN Rating: 89; Rivals: ***; (6-5, 185, SF, Lakeland, FL). More...
Kierre Greenwood- ESPN Rating: NA, Rivals: NA; (6-2, 170, PG, Richmond, IN): No Division I offers, according to Rivals.com. More...
Donte Medder- ESPN Rating: NA, Rivals: NA; (6-3, 175, PG, Mesa, AZ); Attends the same high school as current Hawkeye Aaron Fuller. More...
Malcolm Moore- ESPN Rating: 87, Rivals: NA; (6-7, 225, PF, Iowa City): Enjoying a monster season at City High; Iowa doesn’t appear to have much interest, however. More...
Jacob Jenkins- ESPN Rating: NA, Rivals: ***; (6-4, 185, SG, Louisville, KY): Holds offers from Butler, Dayton, Illinois St., Morehead St., Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, and Western Kentucky. More...
Marcus Jordan- ESPN Rating: 87, Rivals: ***; (6-3, 180, SG, Wilmette, IL): Son of Michael Jordan; only offer is from Miami (FL). More...
Akeem Richmond- ESPN Rating: 86, Rivals: ***; (6-2, 180, PG, Sanford, NC): Talented point guard has drawn interest from a number of top programs. More...
Dyricus Simms-Edwards- (6-1, 175, SG, Washington, IL): Attends the same high school as current Indiana Hoosier Matt Roth. More...
2010
Committed:
Chanse Creekmur- ESPN Rating: NA, Rivals: ***; (6-6, 205, SF, Marshalltown, IA): Ranks in the top 10 in scoring among Class 4A players in the state of Iowa. More...
Cody Larson- ESPN Rating: 88, Rivals: ***; (6-9, 225, PF, Sioux Falls, SD): Attends the same high school as current Wisconsin Badger Joe Krabbenhoft; ranked by some as a top 100 player in his class. More...
Offered:
Harrison Barnes- ESPN Rating: 98, Rivals: *****; (6-6, 206, SF, Ames, IA): Rated the no. 4 overall player in the nation by Rivals.com; holds 20 scholarship offers, including ones from Duke, Kansas, North Carolina, and UCLA. More...
Kyle Kelm- ESPN Rating: NA, Rivals: ***; (6-9, 210, PF, Randolph, WI): Ranked by Rivals.com as the no. 130 overall player in the nation for the class of 2010; also holds an offer from Iowa State. More...
Alex Rossi- ESPN Rating: NA, Rivals: ***; (6-5, 180, SG, Winnetka, IL): Also holds an offer from Northwestern. More...
Possible Targets:
Ben Brust- ESPN Rating: NA, Rivals: NA; (6-2, 170, PG, Mundelein, IL): Holds offers from Butler, Davidson, Loyola-Chicago, Valparaiso, Wis.-Green Bay, and Wis.-Milwaukee. More...
Paul Bunch- ESPN Rating: NA, Rivals: ***; (6-9, 220, C, Chicago). More...
Chad Calcaterra- ESPN Rating: 86; Rivals: ***; (6-10, 210, PF, Cloquet, MN): Holds offers from Colorado St., Minnesota, Northern Iowa, Wis.-Green Bay, and North Dakota St. More...
Steven Carter- ESPN Rating: NA, Rivals: NA; (6-8, 205, PF, Shawnee Mission, KS). More...
A.J. Derby- ESPN Rating: 70, Rivals: NA; (6-4, 215, SF, Iowa City): Not likely to play basketball in college; holds offers from Cincinnati, Iowa, Stanford, and Wisconsin for football. More...
Elliott Eliason- ESPN Rating: NA, Rivals: ***; (6-11, 235, C, Chadron, NE): Ranked by Rivals.com as the no. 143 overall player in the nation for class of 2010. More...
Brett Ervin- ESPN Rating: NA, Rivals: NA; (6-5, 195, SF, Eden Prairie, MN). More...
Josh Gasser- (6-4, 180, PG, Port Washington, WI): Took unofficial visit to Iowa in early January; averages almost 30 points per game. More...
Fred Heldring- ESPN Rating: NA, Rivals: NA; (6-9, 215, PF, Winnetka, IL). More...
Troy Leaf- ESPN Rating: 77, Rivals: NA; (6-1, 165, SG, El Cajon, CA). More...
Jordan Manuel- ESPN Rating: 70, Rivals: ***; (6-8, 190, SF, Indianapolis): Holds offers from Dayton and St. Bonaventure. More...
Zach McCabe- ESPN Rating: NA, Rivals: **; (6-4, 189, SG, Sioux City, IA): High school teammate of 2009 Iowa signee Brennan Cougill. More...
2011
Offered:
Justin Gant- (6-8, 190, PF, Terre Haute, IN): Also holds offers from MVC schools Bradley and Indiana State. More...
Chasson Randle- (6-1, 180, PG, Rock Island, IL): Also holds offers from Illinois, Indiana, Iowa State, Wisconsin, and Bradley; Randle, likely to be a top 100 player in his class, recently visited Iowa. More...
Possible Targets:
Marcus Alipate- (5-11, PG, Bloomington, MN): One of the top players in Minnesota for the class of 2011. More...
Hayden Hoerdemann- (6-2, 170, SG, Bloomington, IL): Holds offers from Illinois St. and Eastern Illinois. More...
Jordan Smith- (6-1, SG, Long Lake, MN). More...
Donivine Stewart- (5-11, 165, PG, Bartonville, IL): Holds offers from Illinois and West Virginia. More...
2012
Target:
Marcus Paige- (5-10, 140, PG, Marion, IA): Already holds offers from Iowa State and Northern Iowa; Iowa likely to offer at some point. More...
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
Could the Hawks Win With Only Iowa Recruits?
Let's play the hypothetical game. What if Iowa could only recruit players from in-state? In this scenario, Todd Lickliter and his staff could select any players they wanted from Iowa and those players would have no choice but to be Hawkeyes. Could Iowa be competitive while recruiting only from within the Hawkeye State? Let's look at what the roster might look like right now if this were the case.
Pos. Name, School (Ht, Wt, Yr, Hometown)
G Jason Bohannon, Wisconsin (6-2, 198, Jr., Marion)
C Jordan Eglseder, Northern Iowa (7-1, 280, Jr., Bellevue)
G Ali Farokhmanesh, Northern Iowa (6-0, 190, Jr., Iowa City)
G/F Matt Gatens, Iowa (6-5, 215, Fr., Iowa City)
G Grant Gibbs, Gonzaga (6-4, 204, Fr., Marion)
G Brian Haak, Northern Iowa (6-1, 180, Jr., Spencer)
G Sean Haluska, Iowa State (6-3, 210, Sr., Carroll)
F Casey Harriman, Creighton (6-5, 205, So., Ida Grove)
G Kaleb Korver, Creighton (6-5, 190, So., Pella)
C Austin Pehl, Northern Iowa (6-10, 235, Fr., Cedar Falls)
G Bryan Peterson, Iowa State (6-1, 180, Sr., Clinton)
F L.A. Pomlee, Iowa State (6-8, 235, Fr., Davenport)
G Jordan Printy, Indiana State (6-4, 180, Fr., Marion)
F Alex Thompson, Iowa State (6-10, 235, Sr., Ames)
Well, that's the list. There are numerous other native Iowans playing for mid-major programs but these are the best players from Iowa in division I basketball.
The list certainly looks rather unimpressive. It's hard to imagine this team would be considerably better, or even better at all, than the actual Hawkeye basketball team. However, there are a few players that would be great additions. Jason Bohannon would be a nice point guard, Grant Gibbs was a highly-touted recruit, and Jordan Eglseder would give Iowa a huge post presence that it really needs.
You can't just look at one season to answer the question though. From a year-to-year basis, Iowa would likely be competitive with only in-state recruits. Think about it. A long list of talented preps have graced Iowa high school basketball courts for the last several years. There's Kirk Hinrich, Raef LaFrentz, Ryan Bowen, Ricky Davis, Dean Oliver, Adam Haluska, Greg Brunner, Jeff Horner, Nate Funk, Kyle Korver, Matt Gatens, Jason Bohannon, Grant Gibbs and probably many others that escape my memory.
Then there's Harrison Barnes in 2010, plus Iowa signees Brennan Cougill and Eric May in 2009, and Iowa commitment Chanse Creekmur in 2010. A lineup with Barnes, Gatens and Gibbs would certainly have the potential to be top 25 material in 2010.
Thus, Iowa could put together decent teams. Sure, Iowa doesn't produce a Harrison Barnes or Ricky Davis every year, but they could still be respectable. Iowa would fill its roster with players that may otherwise become quality players at Northern Iowa, Iowa State, Drake or even Kansas. There would be lean seasons, such as in 2008-09, but also some top 25-caliber teams from time to time.
Pos. Name, School (Ht, Wt, Yr, Hometown)
G Jason Bohannon, Wisconsin (6-2, 198, Jr., Marion)
C Jordan Eglseder, Northern Iowa (7-1, 280, Jr., Bellevue)
G Ali Farokhmanesh, Northern Iowa (6-0, 190, Jr., Iowa City)
G/F Matt Gatens, Iowa (6-5, 215, Fr., Iowa City)
G Grant Gibbs, Gonzaga (6-4, 204, Fr., Marion)
G Brian Haak, Northern Iowa (6-1, 180, Jr., Spencer)
G Sean Haluska, Iowa State (6-3, 210, Sr., Carroll)
F Casey Harriman, Creighton (6-5, 205, So., Ida Grove)
G Kaleb Korver, Creighton (6-5, 190, So., Pella)
C Austin Pehl, Northern Iowa (6-10, 235, Fr., Cedar Falls)
G Bryan Peterson, Iowa State (6-1, 180, Sr., Clinton)
F L.A. Pomlee, Iowa State (6-8, 235, Fr., Davenport)
G Jordan Printy, Indiana State (6-4, 180, Fr., Marion)
F Alex Thompson, Iowa State (6-10, 235, Sr., Ames)
Well, that's the list. There are numerous other native Iowans playing for mid-major programs but these are the best players from Iowa in division I basketball.
The list certainly looks rather unimpressive. It's hard to imagine this team would be considerably better, or even better at all, than the actual Hawkeye basketball team. However, there are a few players that would be great additions. Jason Bohannon would be a nice point guard, Grant Gibbs was a highly-touted recruit, and Jordan Eglseder would give Iowa a huge post presence that it really needs.
You can't just look at one season to answer the question though. From a year-to-year basis, Iowa would likely be competitive with only in-state recruits. Think about it. A long list of talented preps have graced Iowa high school basketball courts for the last several years. There's Kirk Hinrich, Raef LaFrentz, Ryan Bowen, Ricky Davis, Dean Oliver, Adam Haluska, Greg Brunner, Jeff Horner, Nate Funk, Kyle Korver, Matt Gatens, Jason Bohannon, Grant Gibbs and probably many others that escape my memory.
Then there's Harrison Barnes in 2010, plus Iowa signees Brennan Cougill and Eric May in 2009, and Iowa commitment Chanse Creekmur in 2010. A lineup with Barnes, Gatens and Gibbs would certainly have the potential to be top 25 material in 2010.
Thus, Iowa could put together decent teams. Sure, Iowa doesn't produce a Harrison Barnes or Ricky Davis every year, but they could still be respectable. Iowa would fill its roster with players that may otherwise become quality players at Northern Iowa, Iowa State, Drake or even Kansas. There would be lean seasons, such as in 2008-09, but also some top 25-caliber teams from time to time.
Monday, February 2, 2009
Week in Review: Hawks Fall to Ranked Teams
The Hawkeyes played admirably while losing twice last week. Thursday night saw Iowa drop to then ninth-ranked Michigan State 71-56. On Saturday no. 20 Illinois out-dueled Iowa 62-54.
Moral victories are for losers but Todd Lickliter's squad showed progress. Michigan State's athletes ran circles around the Hawks at times and shot exceptionally well (51.9 percent). Iowa turned it over a managable 14 times while getting a solid effort from Jarryd Cole (10 points and eight rebounds).
It wasn't that the Hawks played poorly, Michigan State was just too much for the young Hawks. Iowa needed to be near flawless to win, and they weren't. They needed to make more than 30.8 percent (8-26) of their threes and capitalize on free throws where they were just 4-for-9.
The eight point loss at Illinois was actually more enouraging than discouraging. Iowa fought closely from start to finish. They never trailed by double-digits and actually led by four late in the first half. Cole again asserted himself nicely, especially in the first half when he scored all of his 10 points. Unfortunately for Iowa, Cole wasn't the same player in the second half as he was plagued by foul trouble. Jeff Peterson turned in a quality performace as well, registering 12 points, 6 assists and no turnovers.
Some quick observations:
1. Iowa has gone cold from beyond the arc. They've shot only 30.8 (28-91) percent from deep over their last four games. Devan Bawinkel is just 4-for-19 (21 percent) in his last eight games.
2. Rebounding is a major issue. Michigan State outrebounded Iowa 35-28 and similarly, Illinios out-numbered Iowa 35-22 on the glass. Cyrus Tate cannot be back soon enough.
3. Matt Gatens is shooting more. Well, it's hardly a trend considering it's just two games. But he did take 21 shots combined in the last two games. If he can get 10 shots per game, Iowa will be much better.
4. Perhaps David Palmer's two monster games were a fluke. No one expected 20 points and eight boards per game but what happened? He's scored only 15 points and grabbed 11 rebounds in his last three games.
Up Next: Feb. 4 @ Indiana; Feb. 7 vs. Northwestern.
The Hawks actually stand a legitimate chance to win twice this week. Going to Indiana is a potential nightmare, however. No one wants to be the first to give Indiana (5-15, 0-8) its first conference victory. You can bet Lickliter is telling his team that the Hoosiers have been close to knocking off several Big Ten teams at home.
Northwestern is no gimme either. The 'Cats are on a roll, winners of four out of five. Iowa must play well, even at home, to get a win in this one.
Predictions:
Iowa 67, Indiana 62
Iowa 61, Northwestern 58
Moral victories are for losers but Todd Lickliter's squad showed progress. Michigan State's athletes ran circles around the Hawks at times and shot exceptionally well (51.9 percent). Iowa turned it over a managable 14 times while getting a solid effort from Jarryd Cole (10 points and eight rebounds).
It wasn't that the Hawks played poorly, Michigan State was just too much for the young Hawks. Iowa needed to be near flawless to win, and they weren't. They needed to make more than 30.8 percent (8-26) of their threes and capitalize on free throws where they were just 4-for-9.
The eight point loss at Illinois was actually more enouraging than discouraging. Iowa fought closely from start to finish. They never trailed by double-digits and actually led by four late in the first half. Cole again asserted himself nicely, especially in the first half when he scored all of his 10 points. Unfortunately for Iowa, Cole wasn't the same player in the second half as he was plagued by foul trouble. Jeff Peterson turned in a quality performace as well, registering 12 points, 6 assists and no turnovers.
Some quick observations:
1. Iowa has gone cold from beyond the arc. They've shot only 30.8 (28-91) percent from deep over their last four games. Devan Bawinkel is just 4-for-19 (21 percent) in his last eight games.
2. Rebounding is a major issue. Michigan State outrebounded Iowa 35-28 and similarly, Illinios out-numbered Iowa 35-22 on the glass. Cyrus Tate cannot be back soon enough.
3. Matt Gatens is shooting more. Well, it's hardly a trend considering it's just two games. But he did take 21 shots combined in the last two games. If he can get 10 shots per game, Iowa will be much better.
4. Perhaps David Palmer's two monster games were a fluke. No one expected 20 points and eight boards per game but what happened? He's scored only 15 points and grabbed 11 rebounds in his last three games.
Up Next: Feb. 4 @ Indiana; Feb. 7 vs. Northwestern.
The Hawks actually stand a legitimate chance to win twice this week. Going to Indiana is a potential nightmare, however. No one wants to be the first to give Indiana (5-15, 0-8) its first conference victory. You can bet Lickliter is telling his team that the Hoosiers have been close to knocking off several Big Ten teams at home.
Northwestern is no gimme either. The 'Cats are on a roll, winners of four out of five. Iowa must play well, even at home, to get a win in this one.
Predictions:
Iowa 67, Indiana 62
Iowa 61, Northwestern 58
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