The Numbers Game

Get out your calculators, it’s time to analyze some key statistics, as well as win probabilities, in relation to Iowa hoops. Some under-the-radar statistics help in uncovering the real truth. You think Iowa is woeful on offense? They actually fare better on the offensive end than on the defensive side--it’s a fact.

Game-by-Game Win Probability

Statistical wizard Ken Pomeroy manages a website with all the stats you need to know to keep informed about Division I college basketball. The site includes several unusual statistics. One of these is win probability. Here are Iowa’s chances of winning each of their last seven games, according to Pomeroy’s formula.

Feb. 11 @Wisconsin -- 16%
Feb. 14 Purdue -- 29%
Feb. 22 Michigan -- 58%
Feb. 25 @Michigan St. -- 9%
Feb. 28 @Northwestern -- 27%
Mar. 3 Ohio St. -- 45%
Mar. 7 Penn St. -- 62%

Adding up the percentages from all the games, you get 246 percent, or 2.46 wins. Thus, Iowa fans should expect to see two or three more wins in the Hawkeyes’ last seven games before the Big Ten Tournament. According to this site, Iowa stands a better than average chance to win home games over Michigan and Penn State.

Surprisingly, Iowa has a 52 percent chance of winning a road game. This seems quite optimistic, though. Their chances of winning at Michigan State may as well be zero. Northwestern certainly presents Iowa’s best chance to end their woes on the road, but even that won’t be easy.

Offensive/Defensive Efficiency

On ESPN’s coverage of college basketball, you’re probably used to seeing team statistics for offensive and defensive points per game scroll across the bottom of the screen. These stats are mainstream and widely accepted as the best markers for judging what teams are best on particular ends of the floor. Don’t pay any attention. Teams styles differ widely in college basketball. VMI, the fastest-paced team in Division I basketball (averaging 81.4 possessions per game), averages 24 more offensive possessions than Denver, which ranks last among all Division I teams. So of course VMI is going to average more points per game than Denver.

The real judge of efficiency both offensively and defensively is points per possession. This statistic eliminates the variable--number of possessions--to provide a more accurate rate to evaluate a team’s performance.

Below are the Big Ten ranks for points per possession offensively and defensively, and the differentials of these two stats. The differentials basically give you a power ranking, although it’s accuracy certainly comes into question because of the varying difficulties of each teams’ schedules. For example, Michigan is obviously better than the 10th best team in the Big Ten. Their strength of schedule ranks 15th in the country, meaning the difficulty of their opponents factors into their low ranking.

Lastly, Iowa ranks 5th offensively compared to 10th defensively in relation to other Big Ten teams--surprising to say the least. Consider that Iowa ranks 292nd in the country in offensive points per game but 15th in the country in defensive points per game. Again, it’s not necessarily imperative for a team to score a ton of points or hold the opponent to a certain amount. Teams just need to be efficient with their possessions.

Points Per Possession (Offense):
1. Michigan St. -- 1.123
2. Wisconsin -- 1.085
3. Penn St. -- 1.078
4. Ohio St. -- 1.075
5. Iowa -- 1.073
6. Northwestern -- 1.066
7. Michigan -- 1.057
8. Minnesota -- 1.056
9. Purdue -- 1.043
10. Illinois -- 1.042
11. Indiana -- 0.908

Points Per Possession (Defense):
1. Purdue -- 0.872
2. Illinois -- 0.884
3. Ohio St. -- 0.956
4. Michigan St. -- 0.957
5. Minnesota -- 0.960
6. Northwestern -- 0.977
7. Penn St. -- 0.982
9. Wisconsin -- 0.997
8. Michigan -- 0.998
10. Iowa -- 1.012
11. Indiana -- 1.055

Points Per Possession Differential:
1. Purdue -- (+0.171)
2. Michigan St. -- (+0.166)
3. Illinois -- (+0.158)
4. Ohio St. -- (+0.119)
T5. Minnesota -- (+0.096)
T5. Penn St. -- (+0.096)
7. Northwestern -- (+0.089)
8. Wisconsin -- (+0.088)
9. Iowa -- (+0.061)
10. Michigan -- (+0.059)
11. Indiana -- (-0.147)

Work the Clock

Iowa averages 57.5 offensive possessions per game, good for 343rd among 344 Division I college basketball teams. The national average is 66.9. This statistic means that Iowa plays a much slower pace than the average team.

While this kind of basketball lulls Carver crowds to sleep, it’s a smart strategy for a team low on athleticism and speed. By reducing the number of possessions, Iowa gives itself a much better chance of hanging in the game with some of the elite teams in the conference.