This week’s rankings feature a summary on each team’s tournament chances, including projected NCAA Tournament seeds. 10 of the 11 Big Ten teams have a shot to play in the postseason. 113 teams make postseason tournaments. Don’t forget about the NIT and the College Basketball Invitational (CBI).
1. Michigan State (20-4, 10-2): This isn’t brain surgery. The Spartans will be in the Big Dance. They have by far the best profile of anyone in the conference, with a multitude of marquee victories. The only question is what seed. There’s almost no chance they fall beyond a no. 3 seed. Projected Seed: 2.
2. Illinois (20-5, 8-4): Roughing up Purdue and squeaking by Northwestern on the road vaults the Illini into second in this week’s power rankings. Illinois should expect a nice seed come March. Bruce Weber’s club boasts the 14th best RPI in the nation and a host of key wins, including one over Missouri. The Illini are already a lock for the tournament. Projected Seed: 4.
3. Purdue (18-6, 7-4): The Boilermakers impressively stomped on Penn State Wednesday night. The two straight losses prior to that victory drop their profile. Still, Purdue looks to have a high seeding. The no. 4 seed may be out of reach if Hummel cannot return soon, however. Illinois had no trouble dispensing of Purdue on Sunday. Projected Seed: 4.
4. Ohio State (17-5, 7-4): It amazed me when a recent CBS broadcast listed the Buckeyes as a bubble team. Are you kidding? Ohio State has the 21st-ranked RPI and has performed well against good competition. It has wins over Butler, Purdue and Minnesota. The Buckeyes can book their trip to the Dance. Projected Seed: 5
5. Minnesota (19-5, 7-5): The Gophers are as near a lock as it gets. They have three great wins over Louisville, Ohio State and Illinois. Their resume indicates a fairly high seed in their future. A strong finish could lift Minnesota to as high as a no. 4 seed. Look for something a little lower. Projected Seed: 7.
6. Wisconsin (15-9, 6-6): Wisconsin’s talent always suggested they should be ranked right here. They’re simply better than Michigan and Penn State. The six-game losing streak took them off tournament watch lists. Now, they’re right back on them. While Wisconsin might be on the outside looking in at the moment, a favorable schedule down the stretch bodes well for a Tournament berth. Projected Seed: 9.
7. Michigan (14-10, 5-7): The Wolves are reeling. They’ve lost seven out of nine, and are still hanging their hats on early wins over UCLA and Duke. It doesn’t look like it will be enough. John Belein’s team is 1-4 in conference road games and four of their last six are on the road. In other words, hello NIT. The NCAA Tournament drought will continue. Projection: NIT.
8. Penn State (17-8, 6-6): The Nittany Lions have a better record than the Wolverines, but at least Michigan played some teams with a pulse outside the conference. Penn State has a shocking win at Michigan State and a win against a beat-up Purdue team on its profile--and that’s pretty much it. Projection: NIT.
9. Northwestern (13-9, 4-7): The loss at Iowa likely ended Northwestern’s faint hopes of reaching its first ever NCAA Tournament. Penn State wishes it had the an out-of-conference victory like the ‘Cats secured over Florida State. Bill Carmody deserves to be commended for having his team in NCAA Tournament contention this late, but it’s not going to happen. The NIT may even pass on the ‘Cats because of their lack of sex appeal. Projection: NIT.
10. Iowa (13-12, 3-9): The Hawkeyes could stay above the .500 mark if they can just take care of a few of their home games (four of their last six are at home). Any postseason tournament would be cause for celebration in Iowa City. The CBI could come calling if Iowa can stay at the .500 mark. Even if they do though, the Hawks could still get passed over. Projection: No tournament.
11. Indiana (6-17, 1-10): The Hoosiers’ chances of making a postseason tournament are about the same as my chances of beating LeBron in a one-on-one matchup. (or a SportsCenter show with no mention of A-Rod). NCAA Tournament appearances aren’t far off though. Tom Crean is one of the best in the business. Indiana is dangerous enough to give some teams that dreaded “bad loss.” Projection: Season’s over.
Friday, February 13, 2009
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I am excited about Big Ten basketball in the near future. Teams are getting better and better and it is fun to watch this league because no game is an easy one, even Indiana. It's weird not seeing Indiana mentioned anywhere but with Crean they will get some good prospects and be back as a contender in a few years just like Iowa will be. It'll be nice seeing so many Big Ten teams in the tourney this year.
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