A great question was raised in response to my Monday “Week in Review” blog.(Image at right courtesy of The Des Moines Register).
“How many years do you think the current regime gets to show it can turn things around?”
I responded that the current staff will get at least four years. However, I figured the question was worthy of another blog post, and a greater examination. So, here goes.
Todd Lickliter’s first two years at Butler were nothing like what his first two years at Iowa have been. His Butler teams went 53-12 while winning a pair of Horizon League championships and appearing in the NIT and the NCAA Tournament.
That situation was completely different than the one Lickliter found himself in upon arriving in Iowa City though. Lickliter inherited a successful Butler team from Thad Matta, who left the Bulldogs for Xavier. All Lickliter had to do was continue the “Butler way” with a full cupboard.
He came to Iowa with a program in disarray. His “stars” were Tony Freeman and Justin Johnson. Iowa’s 13-19 finish came as no surprise in year one.
Entering this season, most expected some degree of improvement, and that’s been evident. The Hawks may actually finish with a worse Big Ten record than last season, but the conference is much stronger. Iowa won 10 of 13 outside the conference, beating Kansas State, Northern Iowa and Iowa State, and competing with Boston College on the road.
But the Hawks obviously have to get better. Iowa basketball has reached new lows, no matter who is to blame. Saturday’s loss to Purdue marked the first time ever that the program has suffered back-to-back seasons with 10 or more conference losses. Yet, that streak will probably reach three years after next season. Does that mean the seat will get hot for Lickliter and company?
I don’t think it does. Year four looks like the crucial year for Lickliter. Gary Barta hired Lickliter with the understanding that things probably wouldn’t be turned around immediately. Barta only had to look at Lickliter’s track record to see that the old Butler coach had no history of recruiting top level athletes. Barta had to know that the right players were not in place to execute a complex system. Lickliter is his guy. I expect him to have patience.
But patience can run out. Entering the 2010-11 season, Lickliter will likely have the most experienced team in the Big Ten, if not the nation. Check out his possible starting lineup for that season:
5- Jarryd Cole, Sr.
4- Aaron Fuller, Jr.
3- Matt Gatens, Jr.
2- Jake Kelly, Sr.
1- Jeff Peterson, Sr.
(Bench: Anthony Tucker, Jr; Andrew Brommer, Jr; Eric May So; Brennan Cougill, So; Cody Larson, Fr; Chanse Creekmur, Fr.)
All of the above players listed in the starting lineup are playing significant minutes right now. Thus, it should be a winning lineup--a team that should make the NCAA Tournament. Otherwise, things could get hot. Even at Iowa, four years is a long time for a coach who doesn’t succeed. Anything short of an NCAA Tournament berth in year four should be considered a disappointment.
Personally, I think Lick and crew should get at 5 years, as long as gradual improvement is shown and we start being nationally relevant.
ReplyDeleteAnd that 2010 lineup looks to be very, very potent.
Lickliter is putting his system in place. He is a great coach who came here with absolutely no talent, let me emphasize the NO TALENT. Considering how young the Hawkeyes are, they are a pretty good team. Look at the amount of games they have lost in the last few minutes and they were missing Cyrus Tate, (Jeff Peterson for Purdue) and their best shooter in Anthony Tucker. We are going to be pretty decent if not good next year but right now I would give us an NIT shot, and a year after that we will be dominate. I would have to disagree with your 2010-11 lineup. Tucker (if he doesn't get in trouble and shapes up with his grades- which he will) will provide a 1-2 punch with Gatens and he will definitely be in the starting lineup.
ReplyDeleteRegardless of the lineup, there's going to be great backups sitting on the bench too which will hopefully provide consistency on the court the entire game.
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